MUCH IN KARABAKH CONFLICT SETTLEMENT DEPENDS ON TURKEY’S CHOICE, ARMENIAN EXPERT
Kamala Mammadova

news.az
Jan 12 2010
Azerbaijan

Manvel Sargsyan News.Az interviews Manvel Sargsyan, expert of the
Armenian Center of Strategic and National Studies.

Do you think 2009 was marked by real progress in resolving the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

The only thing that can be said with certainty is that the
international situation around Nagorno Karabakh conflict has radically
changed. The emergence of the problem of normalization of relations
between Armenia and Turkey on the international arena had a direct
impact on the nature of the international parameters of the postwar
status quo in Nagorno-Karabakh. The fact of international recognition
of independence of Kosovo and the former Georgian provinces of
Abkhazia and South Ossetia also played the same role. Henceforth, any
attempt to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh will not bypass the problems
of Armenian-Turkish relations and self-determination of peoples.

Therefore, it can be stated that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict entered
a new phase of settlement. This fact itself is a progress.

Are there any prerequisites for opening borders between Turkey
and Armenia this year and conclusion of definite agreement between
Azerbaijan and Armenia?

By taking the decision to normalize relations with Armenia, Turkey has
faced a complicated task. The formula introduced by Turkey linking the
process of normalizing relations with the progress in the resolution
of the Karabakh problem has turned the Armenian-Turkish relations
in a complicated international problem. The world superpowers has
suggested Turkey not to bind these two problems and not to complicate
the relations with Armenia. For Armenia the normalization of relations
with Turkey loses any sense if on this way it will have to make
unacceptable concessions on Karabakh. Therefore, the settlement of
these two problems as a whole seems impossible. Turkey feels this
circumstance but it still hopes that it will be able to persuade the
superpowers to force Armenia make concessions. Unless Turkey disavows
this practice, the progress will be difficult to reach. Moreover,
such position of Turkey hampers development of any mutually profitable
agreement on Nagorno Karabakh.

Might the Turkish-Armenian border open until April 24?

Probably, the direct policy of Turkey will cause more significant
pressure of superpowers on this country. In this case, the problem of
international recognition of the 1915 Armenian genocide may come to
the agenda for example in the US Congress. In this case, Turkey will
have to make a choice between its current position and the situation
with new threats resulting from the intensification of the process
of recognition of genocide. This choice will depend on other not less
painless problems for Turkey, for example, the problem of Kurds.

Anyway, the deadline of April 24 has a political burden. Everything
will depend on whether the concerned superpowers would want to accept
the Turkish vision of normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations.

If not, Turkey will have the only reserve way out- to take direct
negotiations with the Karabakh leadership and thus avert the dangerous
development of the process of the international recognition of the
1915 Genocide and also find the way to separate the Armenian-Turkish
relations from the Karabakh problem.

The summit of the spiritual leaders of the world will be held in Baku
in April of this year. It is expected that All Armenians Catholicos
Garegin II will also be invited. Do you think that such initiatives
may reconcile peoples?

Any meetings are always useful. But it would be too optimistic to say
that the influence of the religious leaders is a decisive factor in
influencing the sentiments of the peoples.

How do you assess the role of Turkey and Russia in the resolution of
the Karabakh conflict?

Turkey is a country that supported Azerbaijan in Nagorno Karabakh
conflict. This position has strongly worsened its international
problems. Now Turkey has to choose between the requirements of the
present-day internal and international challenges and traditions
of its state policy and between traditional attitude to Armenia
and the Armenian problems and the tradition of special relations
with Azerbaijan. Turkey has not demonstrated the ability to make
any choice. On the contrary, it voices the traditional intention to
strengthen its positions in the resolution of the Karabakh problem.

Yet, much in the Karabakh conflict settlement depends on Turkey’s
choice.

As I have already said, Turkey continues the policy of forcing Armenia
to concessions and binds the success of the policy to the world
superpowers. Russia’s role in the conflict region is growing. As one
can observe, Turkey’s hopes have recently been tied to Russia in the
policy of forcing Armenia to concessions. The Turkish leaders do not
conceal this fact. But this approach to Russia makes the latter feel
its decisive role in the regional affairs and raises its claims to
all parties of the conflict around Nagorno Karabakh.

Thus, the more Turkey appeals for help to Russia, the higher is the
role of Russia. Meanwhile, Russia cannot raise pressure on Armenia
in Turkey’s favor for the mere reason that it might thus strengthen
West’s position in Armenia. In addition, Armenia is Russia’s strategic
partner. This means that it is now difficult to settle the issue by
traditional approaches to the South Caucasus problems. None of the
neighbor superpowers can have a serious influence on the regional
affairs without respect to the interests of the regional countries.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress