RUSSIA DOES NOT WANT TO SEE A NEW CONFLICT BETWEEN AZERBAIJAN AND ARMENIA

news.az
Jan 12 2010
Azerbaijan

Stephen Larrabee News.Az interviews Stephen Larrabee, Distinguished
Chair in European Security, RAND.

What do you think about the current geopolitical situation in the
South Caucasus region? What would you say about Russia’s, as well as
the USA’s, foreign policy moves in relation to Azerbaijan?

The political situation in the South Caucasus is in great flux. The
Turkish rapprochement with Armenia has the potential to significantly
change the political dynamics in the region if it is carefully
coordinated with Azerbaijan and linked to visible progress toward a
settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. It would enable Armenia
to reduce its dependence on Russia and open up new prospects for
regional cooperation. That is why the United States supports the
the rapprochement process between Turkey and Armenia. It also would
like to see a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, but does not
believe that progress in the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia
should be directly linked to progress on Nagorno-Karabakh. The main
reason why it wants the process of Turkish-Armenian rapprochement
to be delinked from a settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh is because
an improvement in Turkish-Armenian relations is important in order
to prevent the passage of the Armenian Genocide Resolution before
the Congress. Passage of the Resolution would lead to a crisis in
US-Turkish relations. Thus the Obama administration does not want the
process of rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia to formally depend
on a settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh because this could slow progress
in the rapprochement process between Ankara and Yerevan, which in
turn would make it harder to defeat the Armenian Genocide Resolution.

Russia’s main goal is to preserve its influence in the South Caucasus.

It thus as little interest in seeing a resolution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh issue nor in seeing a normalization of relations
between Ankara and Yerevan since this would reduce Armenia’s dependence
on Russia.

What are the main points of the clash of Russian and American interests
in the former Soviet countries, and especially in Azerbaijan? In
your opinion, is right to say "world power" concerning Russia? Is
this country a real world power?

The main source of controversy between the US and Russia in the
post-Soviet space is the attempt by Russia to try to get the West to
formally accept that the post-Soviet space, including Azerbaijan,
falls within the Russian sphere of influence and that Russia has
"privileged interests" there — which is a code word for sphere of
influence. The United States does not accept the concept of spheres
of influence. It believes every country– including Azerbaijan —
should have the right to decide for itself the path of its internal
political development and foreign policy alliances and ties. Russia
today is an important regional power, but I would not say it is a
world power in the sense that the former Soviet Union was. Russia’s
power and influence, while expanding, is more limited than that of
the former Soviet Union.

What do you think about the war potential of Azerbaijan? Does
Azerbaijan have any chances to become a NATO member in the near
future? What kind of reforms must be carried out in the Azerbaijan’s
Army?

Azerbaijan could become a candidate for membership in NATO at some
point but it would have to undertake a much deeper and far-reaching
process of political and economic reform than has taken place to date.

It would also have to significantly restructure its military so that
it was more capable of working with NATO forces. This process —
especially the process of political and economic reform — would take
considerable time.

What do you think about the Russian military base in Armenia? In your
opinion, if military operations in Nagorno-Karabakh break out again,
will the Russian military base take part in it on the Armenia’s side?

Russia does not want to see a new conflict between Azerbaijan and
Armenia. If a conflict were to break out, Russia would try to use
diplomatic means to halt the conflict. It would only threaten to use
military force in extremis if its own forces were endangered.

What interests does the EU pursue in the process of the normalization
the relationships between Turkey and Armenia? Why doesn’t the EU
make the same intensive efforts for settling the conflict between
Armenia and Azerbaijan in accordance with the main principles of
international law?

The EU has expanded its outreach to the parts of the post-Soviet
space through its European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) and and Eastern
Partnership. However, its main purpose is not conflict management.

Individual members of the EU such as France, which is co-Chairman
of the Minsk Group, have been involved in trying to settle the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.