RUSSIAN POLITICAL EXPERT: ARMENIA WILL HAVE TO WITHDRAW FROM AZERBAIJAN’S OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
R. Mehdiyev
Today
59292.html
Jan 12 2010
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with Alexei Malashenko, expert at the Carnegie Center
Moscow Branch and renowned political expert.
Turkish PM Erdogan is going to trip to Moscow. In your opinion,
do Russia and Turkey share certain common views regarding the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and opening of the Armenia-Turkey border?
I see no common views in this matter between Moscow and Ankara.
Probably, Moscow comes to understand that Ankara will gradually act as
Russia’s rival in South Caucasus, not enemy, but rival. Because Ankara
is very active, it is able to talk with Russia and bargain with it.
For example, Turkey’s relations with Abkhazia are not so bad with
which Moscow is pleased, but for the time being.
So, I think that talks in the Kremlin will be more than diplomatic.
Most likely, they will be success. But I believe that Russia will
have a very serious competitor in the South Caucasus. It will be very
difficult for Russia to pursue its own policy at a time of difficult
relationship with Georgia and two dependent or independent Abkhazia
and South Ossetia while Ankara is very active.
As to the borders and Armenia-Turkey relations, these are own business
of Armenia and Turkey. In my view, it will have no serious impact
on Russia. The another thing is that the opening of the borders
and improving Armenia-Turkey relations will reduce Russia’s role in
resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict since Turkey is a very strong
player with both economic and political leverages.
So, it is very difficult to predict what will Erdogan and Russian
leaders will speak to each other. Moreover, Turkey is good at
interpreting all negotiations in its favor and defend its own opinion.
Today Moscow faces a very big problem – how to behave. So, talks
claiming that the Karabakh conflict will be solved during the
visit will remain juts talks. No steps will be taken to reverse
the situation.
In your view, will the parliaments of both countries ratify the
Armenian-Turkish protocols?
The current authorities of the two states will do everything to get
the protocols ratified. As the situation in the Armenian parliament
is not easy one, any option can take place. I think that it will be
easier for Turkey. It will pass this decision sooner or later.
How do you comment on Turkey’s demands that Armenia must withdraw
from at least five of the seven occupied regions surrounding
Nagorno-Karabakh before the protocols with Armenia are ratified?
I think Armenia will have to withdraw from these regions in any case.
This is the only thing that can be achieved in this regard. Because
the return of Nagorno-Karabakh is out of the question. But liberating
these surrounding regions are unambiguous. Most likely, they will
not be liberated easily. There will be some bargain in this issue, too.
Turkey’s position is strong in this respect. The question is what
price Armenians will offer for this.
In your opinion, to what extent Armenia is likely to agree to return
control of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region back to
Azerbaijan?
There is no need to speak about distant future. We simply need to pay
attention to other conflicts. For example, in the Middle East. This
is perpetual conflict. It is unclear what will happen to Cyprus not
to mention Abkhazia and South Ossetia. That is, there is some new
problem which will be eternal.
I think that Nagorno Karabakh will be the very eternal problem
unless quite fantastic disasters will happen such as the fact that
all Armenians will leave California and France, or the Caspian Sea
will approach Karabakh. All this is possible, so I think that the
controversial situation around Nagorno-Karabakh will never end. In any
case, one will never recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent,
while others will never recognize it as part of Azerbaijan. Again,
this is not only the local situation. This qualitatively new situation
in international relations, which has seen no final solution so far.