2010 A YEAR OF UNCERTAINTY IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH ISSUE, SAYS RUSSIAN ANALYST
Tert.am
15:08 ~U 13.01.10
"2009 left us with numerous positive expectations. The latest
developments surrounding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict inspire great
hopes. And despite Baku’s negative response to the signing of the
Armenian-Turkish Protocols, in my opinion, that was one other way to
force Armenia to make a step in the issue of the Karabakh conflict,"
said Russian analyst Alexander Karayev in an interview with 1News.az.
The analyst isolated two points in the issue where there is
uncertainty: the first is whether the Protocols will be ratified
by the two countries’ parliaments and how Armenia will respond to
Turkey’s moves. The second point is connected with two OSCE Minsk
Group co-chair countries: the U.S. and Russia. In Karayev’s opinion,
these two superpowers can either influence or exert pressure on one
of the parties, so that the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is resolved
this year. However, perhaps neither Moscow nor Washington will spark
such a move.
"So, if we were to summarize, it seems to me that 2009 became a year
of unforeseen activities and positive expectations, while 2010 will
become a year of uncertainty. And if during this year we don’t see
clear activities from Armenia, as well as from other countries who
can influence the settlement of the conflict, that is, from Turkey,
Russia and the U.S., then we will appear before the same issue in
which the conflict developed in 1994. This means that a resurgence
of military actions is not excluded," noted Karayev.
Asked what position the U.S. and Russia will occupy if military actions
resume, the analyst said that will become clear only after the war has
begun. "First, it’s unknown when such a development of events will
become a reality. Second, if war begins, then in all likelihood,
it will take place during that time when the current presidents’
terms have expired. It is for that reason that it will be possible to
speak about Russia’s and the U.S.’s positions only once war has begun."
Referring to the Putin-Erdogan meeting, Kareyev noted that one can
have certain expectations from that meeting; however, the subject of
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will in no way be the main subject of
their agenda.