AZERBAIJANI POLITICAL EXPERT: ARMENIA MAY BE WILLING TO RESUME HOSTILITIES WITH AZERBAIJAN IN NEAR FUTURE
A. Hasanov
Today
9391.html
Jan 13 2010
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with Azerbaijani political expert Ilgar Mammadov.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will hold consultations on
Turkey-Armenia protocols with the Armenian American organizations in
February. What do you expect from these consultations. What will be
their outcome in your opinion?
Apparently, American political leaders would seek to persuade the
Armenian lobby not to oppose ratification of the Turkish-Armenian
protocols. The Obama Administration has adequate political power to
ignore demands of lawmakers put forward by the Armenian lobby. In
other words, extremely popular Obama does not need votes of Armenian
voters and he can easily implement policies contrary to the objectives
of this ethnic lobby.
To what extent challenges that Armenia faces are close and clear to
the Armenian diaspora in the U.S.? Why does it oppose specific steps
by Armenia in this issue?
Armenian diaspora, whether in the United States, France, Russia or
anywhere else, has no special attachment to the Republic of Armenia
as a country of origin. This is understandable since this nation was
founded primarily on Azerbaijani lands, and the diaspora was formed
by Armenians who supported Russia in World War I in the Ottoman Empire.
They have their own accounts with Turkey, against which they
unsuccessfully fought and were defeated. They see Armenians of Armenia
as expendable material in their own intrigue against Turkey.
That is why they do not understand today’s dire situation of President
Serzh Sargsyan, who needs to run the country- 18 percent decline
in GDP, 45 percent decline in individual remittances from abroad
(despite the fact that Armenia’s GDP is more than 15 percent dependent
on that money), negative demographics and holding aloof from all the
important regional projects, dependence on handouts of Russia and
international financial institutions.
As ironic it may seem, back in 1987 the Karabakh conflict was
triggered with lies about economic backwardness of the Nagorno-Karabakh
Autonomous Region from the rest of Azerbaijan.
However, exactly twenty years later, long-term and desperate economic
backwardness of entire Armenia from Azerbaijan discredited Miatsum
and credibility of the diaspora.
Today various statements are being made in Armenia itself in this
regard. So, leader of Armenia’s Gnchakyan Party Lyudmila Sargsyan
announced at the party meeting that Armenia has de facto lost its
independence. Do you share Sargsyan’s views?
Armenia has lost its independence long ago. However, it should be
noted that independence of a state is not a key political value for
Armenians, at least for now. This is their vision of a political
world. It is very different from ours, but it has a right to exist.
Lack of independence in foreign policy of their own state is
significant for the Armenians only in the sense that it impedes them in
official diplomacy, where there is a demand for various negotiations
with the states. But in this case their understanding of the policy
conflicts with the generally accepted rules. Let’s see how they will
solve this contradiction.
In your opinion, what will happen next in Armenia in near future? How
it may impact the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
Armenia may want to resume hostilities with Azerbaijan in near future
in an attempt to deprive Azerbaijan of growing strategic advantage. On
the other hand, it is not Armenia that makes a decision about this. I
am still inclined to think that Armenia’s patrons do not want to play
lottery in a new war. Moreover, according to Armenian experts, areas
around the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region no longer play
buffer role. So, Azerbaijani army can easily attack targets anywhere
in the former autonomous region. This is another reason why I look
forward to an early start of Armenia’s withdrawal from Azerbaijan’s
occupied lands.