IS PUTIN-ERDOGAN MEETING INITIAL WAY OF SOLVING NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT-2010?
Elmira Tariverdiyeva

Trend
Jan 11 2010
Azerbaijan

Early 2010 inspires with some hope in terms of scheduling political
top-level meetings that the positive dynamics of the last year in
the negotiation process on Nagorno Karabakh will continue and be
successful.

The meeting between Russian and Turkish Prime Ministers Vladimir
Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Moscow on January 12 will be the
first one in a range of meetings that can both directly and indirectly
affect advances in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The agenda of the
visit contains both the issues of bilateral Turkish-Russian economic
relations, and political issues of regional character. One of the
main points will be settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

The consideration of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh in terms of
energy projects in the region can play a role of a component, which
will tilt the scales on Azerbaijan.

Now it is more important for Russia, as a traditional partner of
Armenia in the South Caucasus, to influence on Armenian leaders and
achieve decisive steps from the Armenian leadership by providing
Yerevan with further political guarantees and economic benefits. The
bilateral relations between Moscow and Ankara, interested in the
progress of negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh, can be an important
argument for Russia in strengthening the influence on Yerevan.

The fact that regional problems and conflicts in South Caucasus will
be discussed by regional leaders together with the issues on gas
pipelines, oil pipelines of refineries and nuclear power plants in
the region. It will be able to play a positive role.

It is obvious, such large state holdings in Russia, as Gazprom,
Rosatom, Inter-RAO and others, have strong lobbying capabilities. The
desire of these players to enter the energy field of Turkey and
receive large state contracts can force them to use their influence
on the Kremlin in the issue of aid to Turkey. Ankara can not use
such an important trump card to achieve a very important result –
Russia’s assistance in the process of the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement.

An obvious example is Turkey’s consent to use its territorial waters
for the construction of South Stream, a gas pipeline of Russia. It
ensures the delivery of fuel to Europe avoiding Ukraine. It is one
of the competitors of the European "Blue Dream" – the Nabucco gas
pipeline. It withdraws Russia from the game for a certain percentage
of European gas consumer.

Turkey understands that it has potentialities to align its interests
in the region with economic preferences and economic interests of
the superpowers.

Maybe, just the second top-level-visit, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey
Lavrov’s visit to Armenia on January 13-14 and his meeting with Serzh
Sargsyan will complete the issue concerning Russia’s capabilities
to put pressure on Yerevan and achieve the first steps to solve the
protracted territorial dispute.

Moscow can appeal to Yerevan that the determined decision of the
Armenian leadership will be beneficial for Armenia itself in the
long-tem prospective.

Yerevan should realize that opening the Armenian-Turkish border, the
involvement of Armenia in regional transit and energy projects, drawing
foreign investments, are closely connected with the settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The Kremlin, as an important reference point
for official Yerevan, can help in making this decision, and provide
support if internal political circles of Armenia do not understand
this position.

Russia understands that it will gain much benefit from the
normalization of relations between Armenia and its neighbors. First,
it will remove Armenia’s financial dependence from Russia and give
Moscow the opportunity to compensate all the investments deposited
in the country for many years. Second, Azerbaijan’s trust has great
significance for the Kremlin. It promises Moscow success in many
regional energy projects.

One should hope that that point of mutual understanding of all the
regional players was reached during the above-mentioned visits
and negotiations. It will lead to advances in such a protracted
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Its stagnation is the main factor of
instability in the South Caucasus.