CONSTITUTIONAL COURT OF ARMENIA CONSIDERABLY CUT ROOM FOR TURKISH MANEUVER
Karine Ter-Sahakyan

/PanARMENIAN.Net/
12.01.2010 GMT+04:00

Yerevan can make use of international law and simply denounce the
Protocols, based on the reluctance of the other side to ratify them.

The decision of the Constitutional Court of Armenia about the
conformability of the Protocols on the Normalization of Armenia-Turkish
Relations with the country’s Constitution considerably cut room for
Turkish maneuver. In fact, if Turkish Parliament refuses to ratify
the Protocols, Ankara will face a serious foreign policy challenge

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ This, coupled with a number of internal conflicts,
especially those with the Kurds, will hardly help the Justice and
Development Party and Prime Minister Erdogan to talk of Turkey as
of a country living in peace with its neighbors, and, what is even
more absurd, with its national minorities. Among other things, under
these circumstances Turkey’s integration is postponed till a later
date, if it is at all appropriate to talk about timing. Despite the
fact that most of the political forces and the nation as a whole are
against the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations in the form
in which the protocols are offered, it should nonetheless be noted
that Armenia still has time to wait for a response from the other
side. Moreover, the Armenian parliament can speed up the process,
by being the first to ratify the Protocols, thus putting Ankara
in an "awkward situation". Yerevan can also take advantage of
international law and simply denounce the Protocols, based on the
reluctance of the other side to ratify them. Thus, the blame for
the frustration of agreements will be entirely shifted on Turkey,
which on the one hand is still a hostage to Azerbaijan’s interests,
and on the other, has to defend its own interests. In addition,
Ankara has to synchronize all its steps with the U.S. and Russia
or with each of the powers separately. By the way, the Azeri media
outlets already report that after his visit to Moscow, the Turkish
Prime Minister is also planning a visit to Yerevan. However, Ahmet
Duran, the Prime Minister’s Foreign Press Coordinator announced:
"Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is not planning a visit to
Armenia." Indeed, Erdogan’s alleged visit to Yerevan makes no sense,
unless such an agreement has been reached in Moscow. That agreement
can only concern the Kars Treaty, because in no way is it possible to
"negotiate" with Yerevan over the Karabakh conflict and the Armenian
Genocide. Ankara follows the ask-for-maximum-to-at-least-get-something
principl e. And that something is the Kars Treaty, according to which
Armenia is to recognize the Turkish frontiers.

Erdogan’s disastrous visit to Washington alerted Ankara, and now during
his visit to Moscow the Turkish Prime Minister is trying to be more
careful in his various estimates and judgments about Armenia. And not
because Russia is good to Armenia, but namely because it proceeds from
Ankara’s personal interests. These are energy projects, an increase in
commodity circulation and a path to the Turkic Asian peace. The road
to the establishment of Great Turan passes through Moscow, and Erdogan
will try to do his best to facilitate this challenging task. Let us
say at once that this goal is unrealistic in the foreseeable future,
but it doesn’t mean that there is no need to strive.

As for further developments concerning the Protocols, we can make some
predictions, given the current stance of both sides. If all goes as
planned in Zurich, Turkey is simply obliged to ratify the Protocols
by April. Otherwise, she would receive reproaches from three sides:
the U.S., Russia and the EU, which would hardly have a good say on the
popularity of Turkey’s leadership, especially if you recall Erdogan’s
last year’s escapade in Davos. Armenia, as already stated, will be
sitting and waiting, this position being not at all a bad one. Alas,
Yerevan cannot take serious steps, but once again Turkey should not
forget about the Armenian Diaspora and should less rely on Baku.