TURKEY DID NOT EXPECT A HIT BELOW THE BELT

Lragir.am
14/01/10

The visit of the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan to Russia,
accompanied by loud slogans on "truly strategic relationship of
partners", "set ambitious for the near future", "great cooperation"
and so on, startled the political world. It became clear that these two
countries have moved to the next phase of the "great game" and that
the results of such a large-scale cooperation cannot but seriously
affect many areas of the world’s major problems. Being in the centre
of the world community, Turkey started presenting initiatives more
often sometimes arousing nervousness of the world superpowers and
international relations. It is clear that the relations of this country
with the "problematic" Russia are to arouse much interest. Within the
Armenian society, each warming of the Russian and Turkish relations
arouses worry. Traditionally, we think (and it is grounded) that in
such cases the threat of deals on account of Armenia enhances. The
current moment is not an exception when the normalization of the
Armenian and Turkish relations in on the agenda.

Any interested person in Armenia understands that in Moscow
conversations on the Armenian issues could not lack. Moreover,
against the background of negotiations in Moscow, Russia was making dun
diplomatic gestures with Armenia too. The Russian minister of foreign
affairs arrived in Yerevan and the Armenian minister of Defense left
for Moscow.

That all this "boils in one politico-diplomatic pot" is evident. What
these two hard gestures and loud slogans mean is not known yet. We
turned to the expert of the Armenian Centre for National and
International studies (ACNIS) Manvel Sargsyan in connection with
this question.

Pompous diplomatic scenes in Moscow were quite expected. In particular,
the weave of diplomatic acts with Armenia is quite logic.

Despite the fact that the attention of the leaders of Russia and
Turkey was focused on global economic and energetic issues, the
Armenian topic had a central role in Moscow negotiations. It would be
naïve to believe that Turkey would initiate diplomacy with Russia in
such hurry just in the beginning of the year pursuing exceptionally
economic aims. This country is not in such a situation to ignore
political goals for the sake of economic gain. After the visit of
the Turkish premier to the U.S. in December of the last year and the
demarches made there in connection with a series of regional problems,
his current visit to Russia seems quite logic. Turkey needs Russia’s
help to enhance its positions in its relations with Western countries.

The confident policy of Turkey is perceived in West quite ambiguously,
says Manvel Sargsyan.

In answer to the question how the Turkish international problems
affect Armenia Manvel Sargsyan said, "Having decided to normalize its
relations with Armenia, Turkey just from the beginning of the process
faced a hard task. Turkey started operating a formula, linking the
process of the normalization of relations with the progress of the
settlement of the Karabakh problem which turned the Armenian-Turkish
relations in a complex international issue. The world superpowers
proposed to Turkey not to link these two issues. However, Turkey
decided to oppose to international positions presenting its stances
as an ultimatum. With such an approach, Turkey wanted to force
the international society to solve the Karabakh issue in favor of
Azerbaijan. Besides, in the same approach, Turkey saw the resource for
keeping the whole arsenal of measures of its traditional public policy.

However, time showed that in the world, few are ready to accept
Turkey such ambitions. There is much threat in such a policy of a
country which during the last decades keeps enhancing its potentials
pretending to an essential role in world issues. No one is going to
flirt with Turkey even in minor issues. Turkey feels this circumstance
with regards to the Armenian and Turkish relations but it still
hopes it will be able to convince leading powers to force Armenia
to make concessions. According to Sargsyan, Erdogan left for Moscow
to persuade the Russian government to support it in connection with
Armenian issues.

However, apparently, in Russia, they understand that not all the
deals behind Armenia’s back are useful. At least, the statement
of the Russian Prime Minister Putin during the press conference
held after the negotiations that "he does not consider reasonable
from the strategic and tactical point of view the linking of the
Karabakh issue with the Armenian and Turkish process" proves the
above-said. "The Turkish premier would have hardly imagined such a
"hit below the belt", noted Manvel Sargsyan.

In answer to the question how Putin’s position may affect the
perspective of the ratification of the Armenian and Turkish protocols,
Manvel Sargsyan said that the situation in Turkey became even more
difficult which does not mean that this country will yield. "This
only means that the international situation on the Armenian-Turkish
relations now has more clarity. It is possible that the straightness
of the Turkish policy will further increase the pressure of leading
powers on it. In this case, the international recognition of the
Armenian genocide may appear in the international use. For example –
it may appear in the U.S. Congress. In this case, Turkey will have
to choose between its current position and the situation with the new
threats posed by the intensification of the process of recognition of
the Genocide. But it is a matter for the future. Meanwhile, the more
Turkey turns to Russia for help, the more Russia’s role in our region
increases. How will be behaving the latter is difficult to predict",
said Manvel Sargsyan.