AZERBAIJANI POLITICAL ANALYSTS DIFFER IN ASSESSING RESULTS OF TURKISH PRIME MINISTER’S TALKS IN MOSCOW AND RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER’S IN YEREVAN
Trend
Jan 14 2010
Azerbaijan
On January 12-13, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan made
a visit to Russia, and after a day Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov held talks in Yerevan.
Trend News Agency has asked the Azerbaijani experts to assess the
result of these negotiations from the point of view of solving the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Oktay Sadikhov, political scientist
Lavrov’s visit to Yerevan was the logical continuation of Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Moscow. Ankara decided to
step up pressure on Moscow, so that in its turn, it puts pressure on
Armenia. And the purpose here is to free the Azerbaijani territories
in exchange for the ratification of the Zurich protocols at the
Turkish Parliament.
Turkey has great energy contacts with Russia on "South Stream",
Turkey is the main energy and even trading partner of Russia in
Eurasian scale. Given these facts, Russia can exert pressure on the
Armenian side.
It is not accidental that these three events have a necessary link –
doubling Azerbaijani gas to Russia from January 1, Erdogan’s visit
to Moscow, Lavrov’s visit to Yerevan. These visits give us a certain
optimism associated with the negotiation process on the Karabakh
settlement.
Another issue is that the situation in Armenia is so tense and strained
that the Armenian authorities, signing the protocol giving them the
green light, got itself into a blow of radical Armenian opposition
led by Levon Ter-Petrosian.
Zardusht Alizadeh, political scientist
Russia is again trying to prolong the conflict in order to keep
Armenia and Azerbaijan in its orbit of influence. But this does
not mean it will succeed. Time is changing, the balance of power is
changing. Azerbaijan already can take some drastic steps to finally
force Armenia agree with the legitimate rights of Azerbaijan.
Foreign Minister of Russia Sergey Lavrov’s visit to Armenia may be
associated with two options: to support Armenia not to retreat from
their former positions, or there is some progress in the form of an
agreement between Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. However, the second option is unlikely.
The most likely option of Russian minister’s visit is to inspire
Armenia. Under such circumstances, it is unworthy to expect progress
in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict this year. If the West turns to
provide financial support for the separatists, then all hopes are
placed only on Azerbaijan own policy.
Rasim Musabeyov, political scientist
Like the U.S. and Europe, Russia considers the Turkish-Armenian
rapprochement and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict different questions.
It is important what Turkey says in this regard. And Turkey says it
will not open borders and normalize relations with Armenia unless
progress is made in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement.
In 2010, Russia can use its potential to promote the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict settlement. What will happen – whether Armenian-Turkish
relations normalize – is the question of the Armenian-Turkish
relations.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
