AZERBAIJANI POLITICAL EXPERT: SERZH SARGSYAN HAS VERY LITTLE TIME LEFT
Today
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Jan 14 2010
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with Azerbaijani political expert Fikrat Sadigov.
Armenia’s Constitutional Court Armenia has ruled the Armenian-Turkish
protocols as conforming to country’s Constitution. Do you think
it indicates that the protocols will be ratified in the Armenian
parliament?
>From the very beginning, assessing the situation with ratification
of the Armenian-Turkish protocols, I never doubted that ratification
is more advantageous for Armenia than for Turkey.
Despite all the gestures, statements made by some circles in the
diaspora, the internal political processes, statements of opposition
parties, it is advantageous for Armenia to ratify these protocols.
Because it will help Armenia to open borders with Turkey and establish
diplomatic relations with Turkey. In fact, Armenia opens door to the
international arena and breaks isolation which it has experienced
for many years.
Armenian Constitutional Court decided that the protocols meet the
legal standards. There’s nothing illegal about it. Another question is
approval of the protocols by the parliament. The Armenian leadership
will make a lot of effort to ensure that the protocols are ratified.
I think it will be a difficult procedure. Various contradictory
processes will take place in the parliament. Several political parties
of Armenia will use this to oppose the ruling political regime in
the country and will accuse Serzh Sargsyan of a treason.
Does Armenian Constitutional Court’s endorsing the protocols mean that
Armenia accepted Turkey’s preconditions to withdraw from Azerbaijan’s
lands so that its borders with Turkey will reopen?
I think that this will not happen. Frankly speaking, Turkey has not
put forward any preconditions to Armenia so far. Turkey argues that
Azerbaijan’s interests should be taken into account and the occupied
Azerbaijani territories must be liberated. Turkish PM Erdogan and
FM Davutoglu have also reiterated this only after Turkey faced sharp
condemnation from Azerbaijan over signing of the Zurich protocols.
That Erdogan made similar statements in Washington is also a positive
step, but such declarative statements are only oral. However, the
protocols make no mention of Azerbaijan’s interests. Therefore, if the
situation develops in such a way, and if Azerbaijan’s interests are
taken into account only at the level of oral declarations, Azerbaijan
we may face the same situation it saw with the signing of the Zurich
protocols.
It is important that all Turkish statements were effectively reflected
in the process of ratification of the protocols in the country’s
parliament.
How do you see further developments in Armenia? What further steps
Armenian opposition may take?
I think that no special events will not occur in Armenia in near
future. Opposition forces led by Ter-Petrosian will hold demonstrations
on the streets.
But I think all this does not mean that Serzh Sargsyan’s position is
seriously shaken, and he will step down soon. He has not yet fulfilled
its primary mission.
In your opinion, what is President Serzh Sargsyan’s primary mission?
His primary mission is to ensure that by signing the protocol and
approving them in parliament, he will justify the hopes of external
forces.
After he realizes their hopes in the South Caucasus and performs
the dirty work, Sargsyan would no longer be needed. Then he can be
removed from the political scene.
It is no secret that Armenia is a controlled entity, but not an
independent political unit. It is controlled by external forces.
Influential circles in Russia and the United States are behind them.
I think that time is working against Sargsyan. In any case, the
economic crisis in Armenia, which forces families to leave the country
as in case of a family that fled the country to Azerbaijan few days
ago, political instability that prevailed in Armenia and Karabakh clan,
represented by Kocharyan and Sargsyan have set Armenian society’s
teeth on edge. So, I think that Sargsyan and all of the Karabakh clan,
which currently holds power in Armenia, have been left very few days
on power.
In your opinion, what will be Turkey’s response step to the Armenian
Constitutional Court’s move?
The situation is not so simple in Turkey either. Many in the Turkish
parliament oppose ratification of the protocols. There are fairly
strong pro-Azerbaijani forces in the country.
Position of Turkey’s political leadership has undergone certain
changes. In other words, Turkey’s position completely changed
in Zurich in October. Now the Turkish leadership evaluates these
protocols quite differently. I think that even if they are approved
by the Turkish Parliament, Azerbaijan resentment and backlash on
signing of the protocols must be taken into account.
I believe Turkish parliament will not ratify the protocols in detriment
of Azerbaijan’s interests.
May Turkey be first to ratify the protocols first?
The fact is that it does not matter who will ratify the protocols
first and who will do it second in this situation. It is important
under what conditions they will be ratified.
But I think that Armenia is likely to ratify the first, because it
is very advantageous for it.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
