IN 2010, STRATFOR BELIEVES THAT STAND-OFF IN THE CAUCASUS WILL SET DEEPLY IN

APA
Jan 14 2010
Azerbaijan

"Russia is ready to counter Turkey again should it try to increase
its presence in the Caucasus"

Baku – APA. The year 2009 was incredibly interesting in the Caucasus
for a number of reasons. Though much of the world’s attention was
invested in watching the fallout from the 2008 Russia-Georgia war,
a status-quo has set in between Moscow and Tbilisi. But it was the
developments between Turkey and Russia that give signs of trends
to come.

STRATFOR has forecast that in the next decade that Turkey will return
to being one of the global powers with its key geographic position,
strong economy and consolidated government. Currently, a transformation
is taking place in Turkey in which Ankara is testing out its influence
in a number of regions: Central Asia, Southeastern Europe, the Middle
East and the Caucasus.

It is in the Caucasus that Turkey was expected to move first and its
attempt to change its relationship with Armenia was a bold choice
for a first step, but was encouraged by Russia to do so. Russia has
been watching the changes taking place in Turkey in recent years and
planned to take advantage of a stronger Turkey in two ways: to create
a closer relationship with the budding regional power of Turkey and
also to use Turkey’s resurgence to tie certain states (Armenia and
Azerbaijan) in the Caucasus more to Russia.

This is not to say that Russia designed 2009’s events for all parties,
but instead set a series of events in motion that worked all out to
Russia’s advantage.

Turkey was testing to see if its relationship–the so-called bonds of
brotherhood–with Azerbaijan was solid enough that it could expand its
influence in the Caucasus and form solid ties with Armenia. Turkey
misjudged and Russia took advantage. Russia encouraged Turkey to
restore ties with Armenia and mediated the talks. Meanwhile, Russia
was assuring Azerbaijan that it would protect Baku’s interests should
Turkey restore ties with Armenia. Thirdly, Russia has continued its
consolidation politically, economically and socially inside of Armenia.

As the events unfolded with Turkey beginning talks with Armenia,
Russia also fueled Azerbaijan’s concern that Turkey wasn’t looking
out for Baku. The result of this was a break in relations between
Turkey and Azerbaijan on political, social and energy levels and
Russia filling that vacuum with Azerbaijan. The situation became
more serious towards the end of 2009 when Azerbaijan reportedly began
preparations to intervene militarily in the disputed land with Armenia
of Nagorno-Karabakh should Turkey fulfill its restoration of ties
with Armenia.

Simultaneously, Russia kept Armenia from fulfilling its negotiations
with Turkey for the restoration of relations.

So at the end of 2009, Ankara has not only misjudged the gravity of
its influence in the Caucasus by losing relations with Baku and not &
implementing them with Yerevan; but Turkey has in effect increased
Russia’s influence instead. Turkey now has halted its actions with
Armenia and is reassessing what its next move will be concerning
all players.

In 2010, STRATFOR believes that this stand-off will set deeply in.

Turkey attempted to gain more influence in the Caucasus and ended up
losing what it had before. Ankara will not want to act boldly again
on this until it is sure the outcome will be better. But Russia is
ready to counter Turkey again should it try to increase its presence
in the Caucasus. In 2010, Russia will be having a year of serious
consolidations in many of its former Soviet countries–Ukraine,
Belarus, Kazakhstan. This is a trend that the rest of the former
Soviet states–especially those in the Caucasus–will be watching
closely and deciding if they are next on Moscow’s list.

The analysis is published in the framework of cooperation between
APA (Azeri Press Agency) and STRATFOR Global Intelligence Company
().

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress