SABINE FREIZER: IF TTURKISH PARLIAMENT FAILS TO PASS THE PROTOCOLS, IT WILL LOOK LIKE TURKEY BETRAYED ITS COMMITMENTS
armradio.am
15.01.2010 11:17
Although Russia has the greatest potential for reaching an agreement
between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, its mediator
possibilities are not unlimited, according to the Europe Program
Director at International Crisis Group Sabine Freizer.
"Russia’s ability to actually push through an agreement is perhaps
the strongest among all international players, but remains limited,
Sabine Freizer told Trend News. "It is only when the two countries
and the two societies are ready to accept these basic principles that
there would be an agreement," she said.
During talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Jan. 13,
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed hope that
Russia would play a more active role in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict.
According to Freizer, it is highly encouraging that Turkey wants to
bring stability and peace to the South Caucasus and it is trying
to help resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. But Turkey first of
all needs to understand that Russia does not have all the keys to
the problem.
"The Moscow declaration of November 2008 was an example of the
limitations of Russian influence, said Freizer. The Russian Leadership
did step in and was successful in getting a signature from the two
presidents, but this did not change anything on the ground or get
the sides closer to a comprehensive agreement."
"I think it is good if there is more high level involvement from the
OSCE countries including Russia, but again it needs to be accompanied
by a broader debate in Azerbaijan and in Armenia about the basic
principles, because it is only when the two countries and the two
societies are ready to accept these basic principles that there would
be an agreement," she said.
"So, the principles cannot be forced upon Armenia and Azerbaijan
from Russia or from the US, the societies also need to agree to them
themselves," Freizer said.
According to Freizer, the progress on the Karabakh issue is extremely
important for Turkey because of the promises it has made to Azerbaijan
not to open its border with Armenia until there is progress in the
Karabakh issue. Yet it also committed to Armenia to open the border
in the two protocols signed last October.
"Now because of the linkage that Turkey – but not Armenia – is making
between the protocols and Nagorno-Karabakh, Ankara needs progress on
Nagorno-Karabakh," Freizer said.
If Turkey doesn’t pass the protocols in Parliament in the coming
months, but Armenia does, it will look like Turkey betrayed its
commitments. According to Freizer, this will undermine its whole
foreign policy goal to play a bigger role in securing peace and
stability in the South Caucasus.