RUSSIA’S INFLUENCE AS MEDIATOR IN SOUTH CAUCASUS IS NOT LIMITLESS: ANALYST

Trend, Azerbaijan
Jan 15 2010

Although Russia has the greatest potential for reaching an agreement
between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, its mediator
possibilities are not unlimited, according to the Europe Program
Director at International Crisis Group Sabine Freizer.

"Russia’s ability to actually push through an agreement is perhaps
the strongest among all international players, but remains limited,
Sabine Freizer told Trend News in a telephone conversation. – It is
only when the two countries and the two societies are ready to accept
these basic principles that there would be an agreemen".

During talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Jan. 13,
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed hope that
Russia would play a more active role in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict that broke out in 1988 due to Armenia’s territorial claims
against Azerbaijan. Putin, in his turn, expressed his readiness to
provide full support in this regard.

According to Freizer, it is highly encouraging that Turkey wants to
bring stability and peace to the South Caucasus and it is trying
to help resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. But Turkey first of
all needs to understand that Russia does not have all the keys to
the problem.

"The Moscow declaration of November 2008 was an example of the
limitations of Russian influence, said Freizer. The Russian Leadership
did step in and was successful in getting a signature from the two
presidents, but this did not change anything on the ground or get
the sides closer to a comprehensive agreement."

Russia along with France and the US is the co-chair state of the
OSCE Minsk Group which is holding peace negotiations since the
ceasefire agreement was signed in May, 1994. As the result of the
conflict Armenian armed forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan
since 1992, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and 7 surrounding
districts. Turkey cannot itself play a direct role in the negotiations
as it is not one of the co-chair countries.

According to Freizer, Turkey is particularly trying to encourage
Russia to work closer with Armenia to get Armenia to make additional
compromises in the talks. Turkey would like to see more high level
engagement from not only Russia, but also from the other players. It
would like to see the United States and European Union more involved
in Nagorno-Karabakh.

"I think it is good if there is more high level involvement from the
OSCE countries including Russia, but again it needs to be accompanied
by a broader debate in Azerbaijan and in Armenia about the basic
principles, because it is only when the two countries and the two
societies are ready to accept these basic principles that there would
be an agreement," she said.

"So, the principles cannot be forced upon Armenia and Azerbaijan
from Russia or from the US, the societies also need to agree to them
themselves," Freizer said.

The proposals of the Minsk Group, officially submitted to the foreign
ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the OSCE Madrid summit in
November 2007, are the base of today’s talks. These proposals, known
as the "basic principles", resulted from several meetings of foreign
ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan since 2004 in Prague, called
"Prague process".

These proposals envisage determining the final status of
Nagorno-Karabakh through nationwide voting at the last stage of the
peace process, after all other measures of trust are taken, including
avoiding use of force, the gradual withdrawal of Armenian forces from
occupied territories, return of internally displaced persons to their
homes and the resumption of trade and communications.

According to Freizer, the progress on the Karabakh issue is extremely
important for Turkey because of the promises it has made to Azerbaijan
not to open its border with Armenia until withdrawal from occupied
territories begins. Yet it also committed to Armenia to open the
border in the two protocols signed last October.

Protocols for restoration of relations were agreed by the foreign
ministers of Turkey and Armenia in October last year in Zurich. On
January 12, Armenia’s Constitutional Court recognized the
Armenian-Turkish and gave them to the Parliament.

"Now because of the linkage that Turkey – but not Armenia – is making
between the protocols and Nagorno-Karabakh, Ankara needs progress on
Nagorno-Karabakh," Freizer said.

If Turkey doesn’t pass the protocols in Parliament in the coming
months, but Armenia does, it will look like Turkey betrayed its
commitments. According to Freizer, this will undermine its whole
foreign policy goal to play a bigger role in securing peace and
stability in the South Caucasus.