news.az, Azerbaijan
Jan 16 2010

Russia can attain opening of Turkish-Armenian border without Karabakh
settlement
Sat 16 January 2010 | 07:49 GMT Text size:

Rovshan Ibrahimov News.Az interviews Rovshan Ibrahimov, Azerbaijani
political scientist.

The regional superpowers seem to have been focusing on settlement of
the Karabakh conflict recently. The topic was discussed during the
Russian-Armenian negotiations in Yerevan and Russian-Turkish talks in
Moscow. In addition, a trilateral meeting of the leaders of
Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia is expected in Moscow. Does this
intensification imply a resolution of the conflict anytime soon?

I do not think that these events are directly linked with expectations
of an imminent resolution of the Karabakh conflict. Turkey has become
more active because of Azerbaijan’s negative reaction to
Turkish-Armenian rapprochement. The statement by the Turkish
leadership that the protocols will not be ratified without a
settlement of the Karabakh conflict has pushed Ankara towards a
realistic foreign policy. It understood that it should not put direct
pressure on Armenia and should ensure that a solution is reached by
Moscow, the party that has the keys to the settlement of the problem.
Russia is interested in preserving the status quo.

Meanwhile, Armenia is just the last outpost in the region for Russia,
as Moscow has in fact lost both Georgia and Azerbaijan

Rovshan IbrahimovTherefore, during his visit to the USA in early
December, Erdogan touched upon the issue while speaking to the US
president. He also discussed the issue in Moscow. Russia’s reaction
was expected: the Karabakh conflict settlement should not be linked to
Armenian-Turkish reconciliation. Lavrov’s visit to Yerevan should also
be assessed in this light. Russia is interested to a certain extent in
ratification of the Turkish-Armenian protocols and the opening of
borders, primarily, because of the lack of a land link between Russia
and Armenia where a Russian military base is located. Moreover, we
should not forget the Russian-Armenian plans to reconstruct the
Metsamor nuclear power plant. The supply of the necessary equipment to
Armenia requires a rail link that goes there either via Azerbaijan or
via Turkey.

I do not think that Russia can agree to Turkey’s proposal and start
any definite action at least to release the Azerbaijani districts
around Nagorno-Karabakh.

Does Russia not want the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, even for
the sake of its interests?

These are two different issues. Certainly, Russia is interested in the
opening of the Turkish-Armenian border but it can achieve this without
settling the Karabakh conflict. Russia is still cautious about the
opening of borders and Lavrov’s visit to Yerevan was connected with
this. Russia has more levers to put pressure on Turkey than Turkey has
on Russia. Yes, it is possible to say that Russia is interested in the
Turkish market. On the other hand, Russia exports gas to Turkey and in
any case it will be able to find alternative markets. Meanwhile,
Turkey depends on the Russian gas: 63% of gas purchased by Turkey
comes from Russia. It would be impossible to find an alternative in a
short time if Turkish-Russian relations worsened. In this situation
Turkey can only propose, advise and persuade. Therefore, the issue is
not presented in this way on the Russian agenda: should we make
concessions on Karabakh if Turkey does not ratify the protocols with
Armenia. I think this issue has just begun to be discussed in the
Russian establishment because of Erdogan’s recent visit to Moscow.

Meanwhile, the economic rapprochement between Turkey and Russia is
obvious. The two countries intend to implement major projects in the
near future. How can this influence Azerbaijan?

The strengthening of the economic ties between the countries will
promote peaceful coexistence and cooperation in alternative spheres.
As Turkey is our strategic ally, its economic strengthening will be a
positive factor for us. However, there is another side to the coin.
Will this economic alliance be mutually profitable or unilaterally
dependent? If Turkey becomes more dependent on Russia (this is,
primarily, through the purchase of fuel, the construction of a nuclear
power plant, the possible implementation of the Blue Stream-2 and
South Stream projects), it will be possible to talk about the negative
implications of the alliance. The situation may even turn Turkey into
an executor of Russia’s intentions in relation to Azerbaijan.

Does this mean that Russia can put pressure on Turkey to force it to
open its borders with Armenia without settling the Karabakh conflict?

Russia will not put pressure on Turkey over the opening of borders. I
think if there is no progress in the Karabakh conflict, Turkey will
not ratify the protocols with Armenia and Russia will not apply
pressure in this connection. However, if you had put this question to
me a couple of months ago, I would have stated the possibility of
opening borders. Meanwhile, today the situation is changing towards
Turkey not ratifying the protocols if there is no progress on
Karabakh.

Do you think it possible to expect any achievements on a Karabakh
settlement this year?

I think the end of Turkey’s increased activity on Karabakh will become
clear. I expect no other achievements. Therefore, no great hopes
should be laid on the effectiveness of Turkey’s current activity.
Armenia is not independent on Karabakh. It is Russia that makes the
decisions. Meanwhile, Armenia is just the last outpost in the region
for Russia, as Moscow has in fact lost both Georgia and Azerbaijan.
Russia uses the Karbakh trump card to preserve its influence in the
region, aware that it is the last tool of influence on Azerbaijan.
Therefore, Russia is not interested in resolution of the Karabakh
conflict. And the longer the situation continues, the better for
Russia, because even if the conflict were settled in favour of
Armenia, it would be undesirable for Russia as both Baku and Yerevan
would then move towards the Euro-Atlantic community. In this case
Russia could lose the whole South Caucasus. Therefore, Russia is not
interested in any progress on this issue. Progress will be possible if
any power influencing international processes exerts pressure on
Russia. The United States is the only country that may apply pressure.
But currently this country has no key national interests in the South
Caucasus. Washington has got what it wanted, including the stable
implementation of energy and transport projects.

The USA’s wishes are coming true. Therefore, the United States will
not face Russia over an unnecessary resolution of the Karabakh
conflict. The situation may change only if US interests in the region
grow. This is possible if, for example, the United States starts
raising its interests in Central Asia and in access to the region
through the implementation of the Nabucco project to transport of
Central Asian resources to the West via Azerbaijan. The implementation
of this project requires a deliberate political decision from the
United States, as was the case with the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil
pipeline project. But no political will has been in evidence so far.
This happens for many reasons, including the global financial crisis
and problems in Iraq and Afghanistan. This means there are no reasons
to change the current situation. Only two things have changed in the
past two years. These are Russia’s attack on Georgia and the
recognition of the independence of two constituent parts of Georgian,
and the Turkey’s increased activity in the South Caucasus without any
strategy or tactics. I do not believe that it will end positively.

Does this mean that we have no hope of a conflict settlement?

Azerbaijan has conducted the right policy in isolating Armenia from
all regional projects and we are continuing to work in this direction.
Armenia is weakening in the economic sense. It would, certainly, be
profitable for us if the borders with Turkey did not open, otherwise
Armenia would get compensation and the settlement of the Karabakh
conflict could be protracted again. In other words, we should continue
our policy.

Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az