Hurriyet Daily News, Turkey
Jan 15 2010
Putin’s Karabakh stance may hurt Turk-Armenian deal
Friday, January 15, 2010
Ã`mit ENGÄ°NSOY
ANKARA – Hürriyet Daily News
Prime Minister ErdoÄ?an and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoÄ?an’s recent visit to the Russian
capital, Moscow, is largely seen as successful in terms of bilateral
energy deals. Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin’s public remarks on
the territorial dispute of Nagorno-Karabakh effectively means a hurdle
for the Turkish-Armenian normalization efforts, analysts say.
Putin told ErdoÄ?an during Wednesday’s talks that Turkey should not
link the Nagorno-Karabakh problem between Armenia and Azerbaijan to
the normalization of its bilateral relations with Armenia.
"Both the Nagorno-Karabakh problem and the Turkish-Armenian problem
are very complicated by nature. I do not think it is right to tie them
into one package," Putin told a news conference after his talks with
the Turkish prime minister.
"It is unwise from both tactical and strategic points of view to
package these problems," he said.
Turkish and Armenian foreign ministers signed a set of agreements on
Oct. 10 under which Ankara and Yerevan should set up normal diplomatic
relations and reopen their land border, effectively putting an end to
a century of hostile relations.
But there are signs that the reconciliation process is now facing an
uphill battle. The Turkey-Armenia accord needs to be ratified by
parliaments of the two neighbors before being implemented, but there
is no indication of when both nations may bring the deal to their
parliaments.
The issue that lies at the root of the problem is the unresolved
Nagorno-Karabakh dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Turkey’s
close friend and ally.
No end in sight for Karabakh
Turkey first wants to see progress toward the solution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict before opening its border with Armenia. And
the Armenians are hinting no sign of this.
Nagorno-Karabakh, a mostly Armenian-populated enclave inside
Azerbaijan, and parts of Azerbaijan proper has been under Armenian
occupation since a war in the early 1990s. As a result of this war,
Turkey has refused to set up normal diplomatic relations with Yerevan
and has been keeping the land border with Armenia closed since 1993.
Like Putin, U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration has also been
urging Turkey to unconditionally put into effect the deal with
Yerevan.
Putin’s remarks make it clear that Russia has no intention to press
the Karabakh Armenians and Yerevan for an urgent reconciliation on the
enclave’s future. And without strong Russian or U.S. pressure, the
Armenians will see little reason to compromise on this matter.
As a result, the Turkish parliament, for its part, will see little
reason to ratify the normalization deal with Yerevan, which
effectively could mean the collapse or suspension of the
reconciliation process.
"In fact, a real reconciliation involving Turkey and Azerbaijan on the
one side and Armenia on the other is one of the last things Putin’s
Russia would want to see, because such a deal may pave the way for the
construction of new pipelines carrying Eurasian oil and natural gas to
the West, bypassing Russian territory," said a former senior Turkish
diplomat.
"Russia is very jealous about its present monopoly in transporting
Eurasia’s energy resources to the West, and doesn’t want to see new
and U.S.-backed rivals in an area which it still continues to view as
its backyard," said the former diplomat. "So, the status quo is in
Russia’s benefit."
US front
The potential collapse of the Ankara-Yerevan deal would mean more
problems for Turkey in its relationship with the United States, and
this plays into the hands of Armenian-American groups.
Despite the possibility of normalized ties between Ankara and Yerevan,
Armenian-Americans’ top priority is to obtain Washington’s recognition
of World War I-era killings of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire as
`genocide."
"In the face of Turkey’s ongoing campaign of denial, we must redouble
our efforts to secure U.S. reaffirmation of the Armenian genocide and
urge the swift passage of the Armenian genocide resolutions in
Congress," said Bryan Ardouny, executive director of the Armenian
Assembly of America, a major Armenian-American group, last weekend.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will meet with representatives
of major American Armenian groups next month. "The Republic of Armenia
through its president, has taken bold steps, yet the Republic of
Turkey continues its counterproductive actions with respect to
normalizing relations with Armenia," said Ardouny. "As such, this
meeting [with Clinton] offers an important opportunity to discuss the
U.S. administration’s efforts to hold Turkey accountable," he said.
Turkey has strongly warned that any formal U.S. genocide recognition
would lead to a major and lasting deterioration of bilateral ties.