news.az, Azerbaijan
Jan 17 2010

Turkey thinks it’s Russia’s turn to pressure Armenia – analyst
Sun 17 January 2010 | 08:02 GMT Text size:

Sabina Freizer Sabina Freizer: `The Turkish government considers that
it is now Russia’s turn to pressure Armenia into compromises’.

`In 2009 there were indeed more higher level meetings on Karabakh than
ever before,’ said Sabina Freizer is Europe Program Director of the
International Crisis Group in her article "Turkey-Armenia Relations:
All Eyes Now on Ankara".

The Turkish government considers that it is now Russia’s turn to
pressure Armenia into compromises and the start of a withdrawal of
occupied territories, said Freizer. `But even if Moscow does encourage
Yerevan to make more compromises, such as it may when Russian Foreign
Minister Sergey Lavrov visits Armenia this week, this is unlikely to
be enough to secure agreement on the comprehensive Document on Basic
Principles being promoted for years by the OSCE.

On 12 January, the Constitutional Court of Armenia recognised the
Turkey-Armenia protocols to establish diplomatic relations and develop
bilateral relations to be in conformity with Armenian legislation. All
eyes are now on Turkey, where the protocols are currently being
reviewed in the Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, but there is
little sign that they will leave those chambers. Doubts have been
steadily growing about Ankara’s willingness to abide by the
commitments it made in August and October to establish diplomatic
relations, open its long-closed border and establish bilateral
commissions, including one on the historical dimension. According to
Turkey, this is because Armenia has not made sufficient concessions to
resolve the long standing Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan’.

According to Freizer, the linkage between Turkey-Armenia
reconciliation and Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution is not part of
the protocols, but Prime Minister Erdogan emphasized this linkage in
his statements.

`Turkish officials also put much hope in facilitating conflict
resolution through their own Caucasus Cooperation and Stability
Platform, whose first high level meeting is expected in the next
couple of months. But at this point it is unclear why a new
international forum will succeed where the OSCE has failed for the
past fifteen years’, said Freizer and added: `By insisting on linking
Turkey-Armenia reconciliation and the resolution of the
Azerbaijani-Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Ankara is doing little
to make progress on either fronts. Luckily it is not too late to act
and Turkey still has several weeks until mid-April to catch up with
Armenia in putting the protocols into law. But failure to do so will
unravel the decade-long process of Turkey-Armenia reconciliation,
essential for future stability in the South Caucasus, and tarnish
Turkey’s image as a serious regional foreign policy actor ` just at a
the time when it is trying to develop its `peace and stability’
efforts throughout its neighbourhood’, said Freizer.

APA