/PanARMENIAN.Net/

Russia will not allow Turkey or any other state to get closer to
Karabakh conflict settlement

Apparently, Russia has decided to openly show in whose hands the
settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is. Moreover, in all
probability France and the United States have agreed to this.
15.01.2010 GMT+04:00

Following the fairly long New Year holidays in Armenia, the first
working week proved to be unusually eventful. And even if we do not
count the lively debates over the Armenian-Turkish Protocols, which,
by the way, have become a kind of `national sports’, only Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Yerevan on the background of the
Russian-Turkish negotiations can imply a lot.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Lavrov’s visit on the one hand was called to `calm’
Armenia on the part of the Karabakh conflict and on the other it was
to show Baku its place, as even in the new year the latter has not
ceased to swing a club and talk about the `return of her territories’.
It should be noted to the Russian Minister’s credit that he completed
his mission brilliantly, declaring that the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh
can never be decided without taking into account the opinion of its
own people. This statement of Lavrov’s provoked a storm in the
Azerbaijani media, which found nothing better than asking Russian
Ambassador to Azerbaijan Vladimir Dorokhin about his opinion on the
Minister’s statement. The answer was natural: `I can not comment on my
minister.’ The Foreign Ministry had also come to arrange another
meeting between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan. It was no
coincidence that especially on that day the Turkish press reported on
a proposed Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting in Moscow in late January.
Apparently, Russia has decided to openly show in whose hands the
settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is. Moreover, in all
probability France and the United States have agreed to this. Position
of the West is reasonable: it has its own problems: crisis,
Afghanistan, Iran’s nuclear program, so there is neither time nor
energy for Karabakh.

The only thing worrying the Armenian side (and not without reason) is
Turkey’s attempts to interfere in the settlement process. But here,
for lack of imagination, once again comes forth the issue of
ratification of the Armenian-Turkish Protocols in the Turkish
Parliament. In Moscow, they made it clear for Prime Minister Erdogan
that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the Armenian-Turkish relations
are two big differences, as it is said in Odessa. Perhaps that was the
reason that the cheerful statements of Turkish officials about
brotherly Azerbaijan someway cooled down. Really, how long is it
possible to stand this situation, especially, as we have been
repeatedly writing, these are only unfounded words. Both Ankara and
Baku understand this. Nevertheless, they make statements which, by the
way, are more designed for Yerevan.

Seriously speaking, every party that one way or another is interested
in participating in the process of conflict regulation, has many
top-priority problems, whose solution, for example for Turkey and
Azerbaijan, is more important than Nagorno-Karabakh. Generally
speaking, this is good: the less attention Stepanakert absorbs, the
better. The conflict, if it can be called so, is in its lingering
phase, which may last indefinitely. Or, perhaps, not so long: it all
depends on the term of office of the Aliyev clan.

Ankara has a number of troubles: the Kurds, the Cyprus question,
national minorities, recognition of its own history of the Ottoman
times.

Baku too: national minorities, misbehavior of its ambassadors abroad,
the decline of oil production, unrealized gas pipelines (Nabucco,
White Stream), general atmosphere of the totalitarian regime.

Yerevan has its own problems, but they are not regional issues and
therefore are not that serious. Armenia has to deal with purely
internal conflicts, which by and large do not affect the overall state
of affairs.

Last of all, on 18 January President of Armenia goes to Moscow and on
20 January the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs arrive in the region. There
will be just another non-binding meeting between the Presidents, of
course if suddenly Aliyev does not start to play an offended child,
who has been deprived of a toy. So, nothing new should be expected.
And whether Aliyev will leave for Moscow or not, no longer means a
lot.

Karine Ter-Sahakyan