Hellenic News of America
Jan 17 2010

Turkey vs. Israel: Emerging Conflict of Strategic Interest

The mass media in Israel, Turkey and the Arab world, have been
preoccupied in the last few days by another sudden and rather serious
diplomatic crisis in the Turkish-Israeli relations. This time the
insult was initiated by the Israelis intentionally, and apparently
orchestrated by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It came at the
anniversary of last year�s diplomatic scuffle that embarrassed many
Turks and Israelis, who believed that the two countries were strategic
partners with common interests in the Middle East.

As you may recall, it was about a year ago when the charismatic and
rhetorical Prime Minister of Turkey, Mr. Tayyip Erdogan, criticized
Israel publicly, in an International forum, for its brutal attack on
Gaza a few months earlier, which had thousands of innocent victims.
The Israeli President, Mr. Peres, who was present at the Davos
International Meeting, apparently took offense by it, but Erdogan
scored political points among peoples in the Middle East and beyond.
He became a kind of hero for the Muslim masses for having the courage
to say publically what other Muslim leaders would whisper only
privately.

Since then the situation has not improved, in spite of Israeli efforts
to patch up the conflict. The recent incident will make a bad
situation even worse diplomatically, with unforeseen consequences for
the future of the Turkish-Israeli relations and possible political
re-alignments in the Middle East. Indeed, the rudeness of this episode
was rather unusual for the diplomatic chronicles, even with ME
standards. The Turkish Ambassador, Mr. Celikkol, was invited by the
Israeli Undersecretary of State, Mr. Ayalon, to a meeting ostensibly
to receive the official expression of the displeasure of the Israeli
Government for a Turkish TV serial, which portrayed Israeli agents,
and Israeli people in general, in a negative light.

Mr. Ayalon arranged so that his displeasure would be visible as well
as audible to Turks and Israelis. In front of the rolling cameras he
refused to shake hands with the Ambassador of Turkey; he had the
Turkish flag removed from the table in the meeting room; he placed the
visitor in a law couch, while he and his assistants were sited on high
armchairs looking down on the Turkish diplomat, who looked
uncomfortable in this strange and undiplomatic arrangement. But the
Turks got the message he meant to send them, and not surprisingly
reacted furiously, as befits men when they are insulted.

The President of Turkey, Mr. Gul, issued an ultimatum demanding a
formal apology by the Israeli Government, which found itself in an
embarrassing situation by the rude acts of its diplomats. It took the
intervention of the President of Israel, Mr. Peres, to persuade the
Netanyahu Government, which had supported Ayalon�s actions, to provide
Turkey with the apology which it demanded and deserved in this case.
At the end, the Israeli Deputy Minister made a `diplomatic statement’
stating that he `had no intention to personally humiliate’ the Turkish
Ambassador. This could only mean, in this context, that the Israelis�
intention was to insult and humiliate the State of Turkey itself,
through its Ambassador.

If so, this does not add up to an `apology’ to Turkey; but it has been
accepted as such by Mr. Erdogan himself, apparently in an effort to
de-escalate this diplomatic crisis between the allies, in light of the
expected visit to Turkey, this weekend, of the Israeli Minister of
Defense, Mr. Ehud Barak.

This situation would have been unthinkable a few years ago, before the
Islamist Party of Mr. Erdogan (the Party of Justice and Development),
came to power in 2002. This Islamist Party has capable and gifted
party members, such as Mr. Gul, who has become President of Turkey,
and Mr. Davutoglu, who was initially Erdogan�s political adviser and
has become now the Secretary of State. Working together as a team with
clear political goals, this `Turkish Triumvirate’ has brought many
democratic changes in Turkey and, above all, has transformed its
foreign policy. Turkey�s openings toward Armenia, the Kurds, Syria,
Iraq, and even Greece (but not yet Cyprus), are real achievements and
to their credit.

This one thing, therefore, is clear for political observers of the
Middle East: Under Erdogan�s charismatic leadership, Turkey is moving
fast in many diplomatic fronts and is increasingly recognized as a
growing regional power that is capable of affecting the politics of
the Middle East in fundamental ways.

This political fact is not good news for the State of Israel, which
was used to having a monopoly of power in the region due to its
favorable connection to the Pentagon and the US Government, via the
Jewish Lobby in Washington. Traditionally, Israel has thus controlled
or manipulated arms sales to the Turkish Governments, since the time
of its establishment, and continuously during the Cold War years.
Because the threat of Communism was `the real enemy’ all those years,
democratic considerations and human rights violations had to be
covered up or brutally crushed by a series of military interventions.
So, having good relations with the State of Israel was perceived in
Turkey as indispensible for the Military establishment, no matter how
the Israelis behaved toward the Palestinians and other Arabs and
Muslims in the Middle East. The Turkish Triumvirate came to change
this convenient arrangement.

The first great political victory of the newly elected Erdogan
Government came in the spring of 2003, when George W. Bush decided to
attack Iraq and needed help from Turkey, our NATO ally. To facilitate
the war effort, the American Government at that time needed to open a
second front in the North of Iraq. Bush thought that he could persuade
the Turks to go along with the NATO plan, or buy them out. But Erdogan
proved him wrong. Turkey would not allow NATO forces to enter Iraq
from its soil. This sounds unbelievable, but it did happen. It is a
historical fact: Turkey humiliated America!

Now is the turn of Israel to be humiliated by apologizing to Turkey
for the mistreatment of its diplomat, instead of Turkey apologizing to
Israel for the way its public media portray the State of Israel and
its citizens! Apparently the Turkish Triumvirate does not think that
it needs Israeli cooperation for the procurement of American arms, if
it can buy them from Russia which is closer and needs the cash.

Things are changing indeed in Turkey and in the Middle East, thanks to
Mr. Davutoglu, Mr. Gul, and especially Mr. Erdogan. He has been lucky
so far, but if his good luck continues for another year or two, he may
become a great Turkish leader, much greater than Kemal Ataturk. The
later established a nominally `secular’ Republic at the end of World
War I, about the same time when Lenin and Stalin were trying
desperately to establish the first Communist Government and the
`Socialist Society’ in the Soviet Union. It is significant that the
Kemal�s `secularism’ has lasted longer than the Leninist-Stalinist
experiment. Its success might have had something to do with the
Israeli connection and its unwavering support over the years. In all
probability the Kemalist era in Turkey is coming to an end finally and
we will be witnessing its demise in the near future, if the luck of
Erdogan lasts a little longer and the Military does not react soon in
its usual and brutal way.

Anyway, one of the great achievements of Erdogan and his Government so
far has been the dexterous way that they have handled the process of
accession to the European Union. They have used it masterfully to
weaken the Military�s chocking hold on political power and
developments in Turkey. Thus, they keep knocking on the door of the
EU, although they (at least the Triumvirate) realize that the outcome
is uncertain and, in all probability, will be negative at the end of a
long process. Being smart men and shrewd political leaders, they have
started preparing the ground for an alternative solution to the
Turkish Problem. If they cannot be part of the EU, hanging on its
economic tail, like Greece and other poor Mediterranean members, then
why not try to be the leading power of the Muslim world in the Middle
East and beyond? Why not hope for a revival of the `Ottoman Empire’ by
other means?

This being the case, it would not be surprising if the Erdogan
Government came up with some new proposals for the reunification of
Cyprus and for the reopening of the Halki Theological School. Both
these political moves can help them regarding their European
aspirations and regional designs.

The Erdogan Government cannot be serious when it claims to care for
the Roma minority, while ignoring the Ecumenical Patriarchate and His
All Holiness Patriarch Bartholomew. If Mr. Davutoglu finds
inappropriate the `crucifixion’ metaphor, he could and should do
something to alleviate the burden that his Holiness caries having to
operate under the oppressive conditions established by the Kemalist
regime almost a century ago. It is time for change in this front too,
and good will may follow indeed.