Jerusalem Post
Jan 16 2010

Analysis: US has limited leverage on Ankara to mend ties with Jerusalem

By HILARY LEILA KRIEGER, JPOST CORRESPONDENT IN WASHINGON

Turkey is showing no signs of adhering to entreaties from Washington
that it improve its relations and rhetoric with Israel, as another
week of recrimination and resentment has led to one of the lowest
points in Israeli-Turkish relations in recent memory.

Though the Obama administration delivered a message to Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan during his early December visit to
Washington that it was important for Turkey to mend fences with
long-time ally Israel, a brief ebbing in tensions flared up again as a
stridently anti-Israel program was broadcast on TV and resulted in a
harsh diplomatic exchange between the two countries, including the
summoning of both ambassadors.

"Obama did the right thing," said Soner Cagaptay of the Washington
Institute for Near East Policy of Obama’s efforts to mediate an easing
of the strain between the two countries. But he added that the strong
internal standing of Erdogan’s Islamic political party, the AKP, and
his ideological zeal means even the appropriate steps from the White
House yield little.

"Even if Obama does the right thing, the AKP is at a point with its
foreign policy that it doesn’t care, because it’s been emboldened
domestically and it has a singular obsession with Israel," he said.
"Obama’s effectiveness is limited, not by his ability to deliver his
message, but by the AKP’s ability to digest it."

He added that the party has "a perception that the US’s power is not
what it used to be, as the US is getting pushed around in Afghanistan
and Iran," and that means "it has been transformed from the mighty
superpower to the superpower that can be managed."

One Washington source who closely tracks relations with Turkey said
that the AKP had been concerned that Barack Obama might recognize the
Armenian genocide and take other steps inimical to Turkey upon
assuming the presidency, given his campaign rhetoric.

But he said that the administration’s early meetings with Turkish
officials, and Obama’s decision to give his first address in a Muslim
country – and one of the first international speeches of his
presidency – in Ankara, reassured them that if anything the US felt it
needed Turkey more than visa-versa.

"They have less leverage with Turkey than they once did," he said,
pointing out that the shift has also trickled over to other issues,
such as Iran, to which Turkey has made overtures and ruled out
sanctions, to America’s chagrin.

The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the Americans
explored the idea of restoring Turkey to the role of mediator between
Israel and Syria in indirect peace talks that broke off last year as a
way of "incentivizing" Turkey to improve its relations with Israel,
but that there was little interest on the Israeli side – having lost
so much trust in Turkey – and in Turkey for "reorienting and
rebalancing their regional orientation."

Cagaptay assessed that while Ankara would very much like to regain its
position in Israeli-Syrian peace-making, "the ideological position on
Israel is so strong that it is trumping that carrot."

Bulent Aras, a Turkish international relations professor who has been
traveling with the Turkish Foreign Ministry delegation on its recent
trip abroad, questioned the premise that the US would affect Turkey’s
behavior toward Israel or others.

"What kind of pressure will the US apply to Turkey?" he asked, saying
that "Turkey is on the right side" of all the issues that the US is
concerned with, and that the Obama administration has referred to a
"model partnership" between the two countries.

"I call this administration a golden era between the US and Turkey,"
he said. "The only country that deserves pressure from the US is
Israel."

Former Israeli diplomat Alon Liel, who participated Thursday with Aras
in a conference call on Turkey-Israel relations organized by the New
America Foundation, argued that the United States shouldn’t be
applying pressure on either side.

"The thinking that our big answer will come from Washington and save
us is wrong," said Liel, who once served in Ankara and asserted that
the two countries need to resolve their issues bilaterally.

He added, "I don’t think the US has any serious leverage on Turkey in
Middle East affairs."

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From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress