AZERBAIJANI POLITICAL OBSERVER: NO COUNTRY WILL FIGHT FOR ARMENIA

Today
9661.html
Jan 18 2010
Azerbaijan

Day.Az interview with Tofiq Abbasov, political observer at Azerbaijan’s
local Lider TV.

What are your views on outcome of Turkish PM Erdogan’s visit to Russia?

During Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan’s Russia trip, development of
the Russian-Turkish relationship, which is mainly based on energy
sphere, topped the agenda of the meetings. Now Turkey is trying to
improve its position in an Eastern direction, to gain a foothold in
the market of those states with which it had historical differences.

In my opinion, Turkey’s foreign policy will no longer gain substantial
dividends from the Western direction. Protracted process of Turkey’s
EU accession, in which Turkey faces new conditions and new barriers,
testified to this. With regard to settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, it was discussed in Moscow, but it was
not the basic question.

The reason is clear – today all parties interested in solving regional
problems, first and foremost, the United States, Russia and France,
are busy exclusively with how to pull Armenia from the grip of
stagnation. It is made based on several considerations, including a
need to support Armenia as a counterweight in relation to the rapidly
developing Azerbaijan.

And in general, not peaceful and united, but rather disunited Caucasian
trio is more favorable for the leading powers. So, there is nothing
sensational about Moscow’s move to limit itself to discussions on
details of the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations. .

What lessons should Azerbaijan draw from current position of major
regional and world powers on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

The current format of negotiations on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
still exits. But the year 2010, in my opinion, in absence of any
significant changes in terms of the settlement of the conflict, may
be the year when Azerbaijan will be forced to take concrete steps to
change the situation.

This change may concern also composition of countries involved in
the OSCE Minsk Group, or may force Azerbaijan to withdraw from the
negotiations to launch the counter-terrorist operation to liberate
the occupied territories.

If Azerbaijan decides to launch operation to enforce peace, it will
not ask permission from any regional or global power. We all see how
the U.S. addresses the challenges facing it solely by factor of power
without considering the views of the UN and other organizations,
although their problems are completely unrelated to prevention of
annexation of the American territories…

Despite the ongoing negotiations, the Azerbaijani side always retains
the right to use various ways to liberate the occupied territories. It
includes also an option of using force. Do you think Azerbaijan is
ready for this?

It is well known that war is also a way of doing economics, but by
force. But the war for Azerbaijan will become a factor of forced
nature, because unresolved conflict also limits country’s development
blocking potential for integration projects and allows the aggressor
to use the resources, mineral resources of the occupied territories.

The comparison shows the true state of affairs. Azerbaijan’s economic
potential exceeds Armenia’s capability many times. Even if we assume
that the level of combat readiness of the Azerbaijani and Armenian
army is almost the same, Armenia is not ready to conduct large-scale
and long-term hostilities in terms of resource capacity. This war will
be only Azerbaijani-Armenian, and no country will fight for Armenia.