EDITOR IN-CHIEF OF RUSSIA’S KOSMOPOLIS NEWSPAPER: AZERBAIJAN’S POSITION IS FAR MORE CONSTRUCTIVE AND MATURE

Today
688.html
Jan 18 2010
Azerbaijan

Day.Az interview with editor-in-chief of Russian Kosmopolis newspaper,
political expert Denis Dragunski.

Recently, Turkish PM Erdogan paid an official visit to Moscow. In your
opinion, is it just an official visit scheduled in advance or there are
very important economic negotiations related to gas deal, pipeline,
and geopolitical ones related to resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict behind it?

I think this important and high-level visit focused on both economic
and geopolitical issues. However, I do not expect major breakthroughs
is the Moscow-Ankara, Moscow-Baku and Moscow-Yerevan lines. Erdogan’s
Moscow visit and high-level negotiations were rather traditional
respect for the major nuclear and energy power such as Russia.

Pipeline bypassing Russia will be built, of course. Europe have
already learned lessons from "gas wars" on the Russia-Ukrainian border.

Everything happens at the close patch of southern Europe (Southwest
Asia), next to Russia which insists on a zone of its interests
in the former Soviet Union while peaceful Europe wants it to be
so without a scandal. It wants new relationships along the axis of
Ankara-Baku-Yerevan to be built without a scandal. Russia, of course,
wants to embed itself in this so-called New South Caucasus system.

However, I do not see Russia’s any specific role in this respect. In
the late 1980’s and mid 1990s, the following geopolitical scenario was
considered (as opposed to the famous "Goble Plan"): Russia should take
Armenia under its wing to ensure its survival and prosperity and make
"Russian Israel" in the South Caucasus and Asia.

To put it mildly, this plan was senseless for two reasons. First,
Russia had neither money nor the technical capacity to do so.

Secondly, it is easy to imagine scale of the confrontation with
Azerbaijan and Turkey on this issue. Thank God, this plan has not been
used as the basis of Russia’s policy in the South Caucasus. As far as
I know, today Russia has no concept of its presence (influence, games)
in this region at all. It has no political ideology, no real plans,
strong economic projects, no action, except a very vague statements
about "traditional zone of interests" and establishment of inefficient
structures like CSTO.

The past year has been very active in terms of progress in the Karabakh
conflict with no real steps. This year Baku expects real steps from
Yerevan. In your opinion, what is Russia’s role in Armenia’s possible
withdrawal from the occupied lands? What steps Russia may take towards
its CSTO partner to achieve advances in this regard?

Russia is unlikely to be able or want to influence Armenia in terms of
its withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh. This is primarily because the
active pressure on Yerevan would lead to Armenia’s withdrawal from
the CSTO and, consequently, to another fiasco in Russia’s diplomacy.

Another reason for Russia’s caution in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
is quite simple. The fact of long-term and intractable conflict
justifies Russia’s presence in the South Caucasus. "Intermediaries"
and "guarantors" are respected everywhere in the world. All these
meetings and conversations are no more than a diplomatic game.

Moreover, there is reason to believe that Russia, Europe and the
United States have already formed a group of international officials
who have long and reliable "source of income" in such conflicts.

Therefore, the establishment of the New South Caucasus is, first of
all, the affairs of the countries in the region..

Turkey has become more than a serious player in the Caucasus for a
short period of time. However, Ankara did not hide its ambitions to
become a regional leader in the Caucasus. To what degree are Ankara’s
ambitions realistic? What is Moscow’s attitude towards them?

I think Turkey is truly interested in boosting its foothold in
the South Caucasus. This is related to actual failure of Turkey’s
"European project". Despite close and very positive economic and
military-political ties with Europe, Turkey will not be accepted to
the EU in the foreseeable future.

This is the objective course of things. Therefore, quite possibly,
Turkey has decided to launch a major new multi-year regional
project and to become a bridge that will connect the South Caucasus
countries (and, possibly, Transcaspian) with Europe. Of course, some
representatives of Russia’s political class do not like it. Russia
has no real possibilities, but to be honest, there is no reason to
impede it.

Apparently, Turkey has taken up this matter seriously. It was reported
that after Moscow Erdogan will go to Yerevan especially because the
Constitutional Court has confirmed legitimacy of the Armenian-Turkish
protocols.

However, it was stated even at the highest level in Turkey that no real
steps to normalize relations with Armenia will be taken until they see
similar steps in Yerevan in terms of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict …

That’s right, since the Karabakh problem dramatically hinders creation
of the New South Caucasus. Karabakh holds the entire region in a
state of fairly strong, but a dangerous balance of military forces
and political aspirations.

Prior to his visit Erdogan said that he it would be nice to get to
Istanbul by car from Baku, passing through Nagorno-Karabakh, Yerevan
and Ankara without any danger and without any boundaries. Actually,
it is a wise approach. I would call it "The infrastructure on top of
politics. Roads are more important than borders. Economic integration
is more important than sovereignty. "

It would be really great if you built a modern road from Baku, through
the whole of Azerbaijan, including Karabakh, via Armenia and Turkey
onwards to Europe. The Nagorno Karabakh problem will be solved much
easier if significant economic progress is achieved during construction
of new infrastructure and implementation of regional integration,
as well as the rule of law and guarantees to human rights are ensured.

In other words, it will open up new innovative and effective ways to
solve this long and painful problem in an integrated and updated the
South Caucasus in cooperation with Turkey.

Problem of the New South Caucasus is largely a problem of Georgia. New
South Caucasus is difficult to imagine without Georgia, and Georgia –
with no close ties with Azerbaijan and Armenia. If Georgia gets stuck,
politically and psychologically, a desire to return Abkhazia and
South Ossetia, and all its achievements in reforms will be shattered
and it will become a "sick man of the South Caucasus."

In this sense, Azerbaijan’s position seems to me far more constructive
and mature. Not giving up sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan
has a peaceful negotiation policies, patiently developing tools for
a possible solution to the problem through political integration,
economic development and respect for legal principles.

Therefore, relations with Turkey are important for the entire South
Caucasus, and especially for Azerbaijan, which is the most economically
powerful country in the region.