PAX AMERICANA-2, OR GOOD BYE, AMERICA?
Gagik Terteryan
"Noravank" Foundation
18 January 2010
The current economic recession, according to some signs and optimistic
statements by some state officials, seems to have reached the "bottom"
and the global economy is showing signs of recovery. At the same time,
according to the various analytical centers the current system of
economic security still remains more than unstable and vulnerable.
Particularly, the professor of the Columbian University, the Nobel
Prize winner in economy Josef Stiglitz is sure that the expectations
connected with the US economy are not be founded and the current crisis
first of all means the collapse of the American capitalist system. In
his opinion, other countries should be focused not on the US but
on their own possibilities1. Another American Nobel Prize winner
James Buchannan agrees to Stiglitz’s opinion. It can be supposed
that under such conditions financial and geo-economic developments,
which can affect the whole complex of the geopolitical ideas formed
in the recent decades, are possible.
It is characteristic that quite recently among pessimistic forecasts
the uncontrollable proliferation of the nuclear weapon and the
disastrous consequences of the possible nuclear conflicts (e.g.
between India and Pakistan) had been observed. Meanwhile, today
in information field the discussions on the collapse of the global
financial system and its sometimes not less disastrous consequences
are prevailing.
Let us mention that the elaboration and the further discussion of
such scenarios (which can be regarded as a kind of the stage of the
"development" of those scenarios) are the important components of the
political culture and today it is difficult to imagine the political
and economic planning without scenario technologies.
Scenario planning It is supposed that the theoretical bases for this
method were elaborated in the 60s of the last century and the first
scenario planning of practical importance was carried out in 1971
by the analysts of the Royal Datch Shell oil company: they tried to
figure out the possible options of rising of the oil prices by the
OPEC and to forecast the consequences which was of great significance
at that time. It should be mentioned that the scenario elaborations
contain many elements of expert forecasts2. At the same time the
scenario planning is not only directed to the formation of the idea
about the future. It mainly allows to suppose that under this or
that condition (current or the one which may happen in the future)
what kind of political, economic and other developments may take
place and what kind of consequences those processes may have.
Scenario thinking allows outlining more freely possible or
sometimes mutually exclusive and radical variants of local or global
developments. It is remarkable that during the scenario planning the
imagination of the experts is highly rated and it is not a mere chance
that very often in such elaborations the science-fiction writers,
chess players and other so-called "creative" individuals are involved.
Such a "free" approach to the possible developments, among
other advantages, allows to be prepared before ahead to the most
unexpected military and political or economic turnarounds. Due to the
aforementioned factors the "scenario technologies" became predominant
not only among the state structures or "think tanks" working under
their patronage, but also among big commercial companies.
There are various methods of scenario elaborations, but, as a rule,
they imply the fulfillment of the following steps:
the general background of the development of the situation is cleared
up as far as possible and in this subtext the events which may take
place reliably are distinguished, the factors and parameters which may
mostly affect the given event are decided, the extreme values of the
aforementioned factors and parameters are settled as far as possible,
as a result of the logical combinations of the aforementioned factors
and parameters the scenarios, which are highly possible or, at least,
are not excluded theoretically, are elaborated.
Scenarios connected with dollar depreciation The scenario planning
used to be the monopoly of the western experts; meanwhile today we
can also meet, for example, Russian researches.
Particularly, among the specialists serious interest was aroused
by the newly published work by D. Motorin and co-authors3 where the
possible mechanisms and consequences of the dollar depreciation are
presented. They are supposed to be rather realistic and today they
are discussed also by the American experts. The following theses
underlie the postulates of the depreciation of the main world currency:
this does not contradict to any regularity of the economic or social
development, such processes, as the numerous analyses devoted to the
recent crisis show, are previously planned and carried out by some
power centers.
Pax Americana – 2, Island America and "Chimeria" In case of the first
scenario we consider the case when the US, proceeding form definite
factors, depreciates dollar itself.
As it is known today almost all the actors in global economy keep
their currency reserves in dollars or in the so-called UST. It is
natural that those actors are interested in the dollar, which is basis
of the word economy, not to collapse. Taking the advantage of this
reality, the US through some information and financial manipulations
provokes everybody to buy dollar and UST in order to preserve the
existing financial system. To supply its demand the US is "compelled"
to begin printing dollars liberally which depreciates that currency
several times and essentially reduces the foreign debt of the US
and, at the same time, it bankrupts all the members of the financial
community. Alongside, the US, managing this whole process, being in
full control of the situation and printing dollar mint, has time to buy
all the production assets all over the world at low prices. As a result
of the complex of those actions the US regains its global monopolistic
position all over the world and thus resets the one-polar world order:
the "second American world" (Pax Americana – 2) age begins.
According to the other variant of this scenario, the Americans while
carrying out their plans meet the serious opposition by other powers
(mainly China and European Union) and cannot implement fully their
plans, particularly they do not manage to buy assets abroad.
Consequently, the US will partially solve its domestic problems and
will turn into the developed and a little isolated state without
any claims to world domination (Island America scenario). It is
characteristic that American economists Charles Rowley and Nathaniel
Smith called the similar scenario "Argentina" meaning that the status
of the US might be the one of that Latin American country.
The remarkable one is the variant when the so-called "dollar vacuum
cleaner" merges the US and China. In this case the "depreciation"
has passed successfully. Let us remind you that the discussions on
the joint "managing" of the world by Beijing and Washington or the
so-called "Chimerica"4 activated in January 2009 when the advisor of
the US president Zbigniew Brzezinski in fact called for the US and PRC
to solve global problems together. It should be mentioned that such
a tendency for the development first of all constitutes a menace to
Russia and it is not a mere chance that the variants of the Chimerica
scenario consider the Chinese occupation of the Siberian and Far East
territories of Russia which are rich with natural resources.
"Chirussia" or Good bye, America Perhaps the aforementioned fact
makes Russian authorities look for mutual and often anti-American
commonalities with the PRC. From geo-political point of view the
strengthening of the US position in Central Asia bothers both powers
and the creation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization can be
regarded as its manifestation.
Proceeding from these the expert community also considers rapprochement
of those countries which is called by some experts the union of
the Bear and Dragon. This union we would call, by the analogy to
Chimerica, Chirussia.
Those "scenario writers" think it is possible that the PRC and the
RF, carrying out appropriate preparatory works and averting the US
financial actions on financial market begin to bring to market their
dollars and UST5, and at the same time they "turn on" the dollar
"vacuum cleaner" and buy all the raw material assets all over the
world. According to the variants of that scenario, the response of
the US may manifest itself in the form of military actions to which,
however, the allies are prepared. In the new world order the countries
with biggest human and economic (PRC) and territorial and material
(RF) resources are dominating.
It is remarkable that the US may lose its leading positions not only
due to the Chirussia’s activities. According to a number of scenarios
(which, by the way, has been considered since 2000), the issue of
the self-destruction of that state will become urgent in case the
US cannot manage to cease the processes of the economic recession
which are of system character and they become uncontrollable. E.g.,
in connection with the growth of the foreign dept (up to $17 trillion)
the inflation, bankruptcies and clashes burst out, the population
escapes from the country in panic because of the chaos and etc. This
scenario, which somehow reminds the collapse of the USSR, has been
named Good bye, America.
Some conclusions The presented developments, of course, do not include
all the possible variants. It should not be also forgotten that some of
the scenarios discussed on the information field purpose to disorient
the international community. Alongside the global actors try to
promote the implementation of the scenarios which are positive for them
and to avert the negative ones. Amid such a difficult situation for
such small countries as the RA it is very difficult to orient and act
efficiently. Due to the understandable reasons our analytical community
is more concerned with the regional processes which constitute direct
menace to our national security. At the same time it is necessary to
create substructures which would try to follow global developments
and the scenario elaborations carried out in their contexts. In
this context the coordination of the intellectual resources of the
Armeniancy and formation of the network analytical centers with the
help of the Armenian communities in the global power centers (USA,
RF and Europe) become topical. Perhaps, the analyses received from
such structures would allow acting adequately in current difficult
and dynamic situation.
1
2See, particularly, Ô³Õ¡Õ£Õ"&# xD5;¯ Õ~@Õ¡O~@Õ¸O~BÕ© ÕµÕ¸O~BÕ¶Õµ ;Õ¡Õ¶,
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Õ§Õ" 3, 2009O~I
3Ð"ен
 0;¸Ñ~A Ð~оÑ~BоÑ~@&# xD0;¸Ð½, ВаÐ"еÐ& #xBD;Ñ~Bин ВианÐ& #xBA;и,
Ð~PÐ"е ;кÑ~AанР;´Ñ~@ СеÑ~@аР²Ð¸Ð½, СеÑ~@гРµÐ¹ СÑ~KÑ~GеР2;,
Â"Ð~_оÑ~AÐ "е WC: миÑ~@ поÑ~AÐ"Ð µ кÑ~@изР¸Ñ~AаÂ",
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 1;анкÑ~B-&#x D0;~_еÑ~BеÑ~@Ð ;±Ñ~CÑ~@г, 2009.
4From the combination of words China and America
5Let us mention that today the dollar reserves of China are about
$2 trilion.
Other issues of author SYSTEM SECURITY AND INFORMATION SECURITY
OF ARMENIANCY [25.12.2008] STATE – CHURCH – SOCIETY: ISSUES OF
SPIRITUAL SECURITY [27.10.2008] ON THE COMPLEX OF INFERIORITY AND
"TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEM" [04.10.2007] Information implication of the war
[09.10.2006] Russia: Problems in The West and the prospective in The
East [06.05.2006]
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress