ARMENIA-TURKEY: WHO WILL BLINK FIRST?

Spero News
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Jan 18 2010

Over three months have now elapsed since the signing in Geneva on
October 10 of two protocols on establishing and developing "good
neighborly" diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey. But the
prospects that either parliament will ratify those protocols in the
near future remain …

Over three months have now elapsed since the signing in Geneva on
October 10 of two protocols on establishing and developing "good
neighborly" diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey. But the
prospects that either parliament will ratify those protocols in the
near future remain slim.

The major obstacle to ratification is Ankara’s insistence on linking
the normalization of relations with Armenia to concessions by
Yerevan in the Karabakh peace process, specifically, the withdrawal
of Armenian forces from districts of Azerbaijani contiguous to
Nagorno-Karabakh. The text of the two protocols does not, however,
contain any reference either to Nagorno-Karabakh or to Azerbaijan.

Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian, who first argued the case for
establishing relations with Turkey in an editorial published in the
"Washington Post" three years ago, has warned periodically since
October that Armenia may annul the protocols if the Turkish parliament
fails to endorse them within a "reasonable timeframe." Sarkisian did
not, however, set a specific deadline.

In a January 17 interview with RFE/RL’s Armenian Service, Foreign
Minister Eduard Nalbandian too warned that Turkey risks reversing
the progress achieved to date if it continues to peg ratification
to concessions by Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. He stressed that
neither the Armenian nor the Turkish side set any preconditions when
they embarked in 2008 on the Swiss-mediated talks that resulted in
the formulation of the two protocols. "Had there been preconditions,
we would not have started this process and reached agreements in
the first place," Nalbandian told RFE/RL. "If one of the parties is
creating artificial obstacles, dragging things out, that means it is
assuming responsibility for the failure of this process," he added.

Meeting in Moscow last week with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said he considers
Turkey’s linkage "in one package" of relations with Armenia and
resolving the Karabakh conflict unrealistic and "not the right
approach." "It is difficult to solve either of these problems
separately in the first place, and if one tries to tackle them
in a single package, then the prospects for resolving them will
automatically become quite remote," Putin reasoned on January 13.

The next year can be ‘historic’ for progress on disarmament –
Secretary-General

Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon today voiced optimism that 2010 will be
a "historic year" for progress on disarmament and non-proliferation
goals, vowing to press ahead with efforts to rid the world of weapons
of mass destruction.Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov repeated
that argument in Yerevan the following day, telling journalists at a
joint press conference with Nalbandian that "in my view, to try and
artificially link those two issues is not correct."

Erdogan, however, is quoted as having told journalists on his return
flight to Ankara that the "Turkish-Armenian issue will find a solution
only after "the occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh ends." "If Armenia has
good intentions, let it prove them by starting the liberation of the
districts surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh," Erdogan added.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu by contrast has been less
explicit and less categorical, speaking only of the "need for some
progress in the [Karabakh] peace talks" before the two protocols can
be ratified.

Erdogan’s obduracy raises the question whether Turkey was acting
in good faith when it signed the protocols. Certainly the Turkish
government must have anticipated the outraged accusations from Baku
that it had acted in a way that "directly contravened Azerbaijan’s
national interests and cast a shadow on the fraternal relations
between the two countries."

Yerevan-based analyst Richard Giragosian told the Armenian
daily "Hayots ashkhar" last November that contrary to its
leaders’ statements, Turkey does not expect the signing of an
Armenian-Azerbaijani agreement on Nagorno-Karabakh soon. "Turkey is
not that frank in its demands related to Karabakh…. This is a test
of sorts in which the Turkish side is trying to determine the extent
of Armenia’s readiness to make concessions."

In other words, each side appears to be waiting for the other to
blink first.

Nalbandian on January 17 offered little hope for progress with
regard to a settlement of the Karabakh conflict. He said recent
statements by Azerbaijani leaders, including President Ilham Aliyev’s
renewed implicit threat to restore Baku’s control over the breakaway
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic by force, show that Baku "is not prepared
for mutual concessions in 2010." Parliamentary elections are due in
Azerbaijan in the late fall of this year.