NETANYAHU MUST AVERT TURKEY’S SLIDE TOWARD SYRIA, IRAN
By Itamar Rabinovich

Ha’aretz
spages/1143623.html
Jan 19 2010
Israel

Now that the melodrama of insults and apologies has passed, the
government of Israel should seriously tackle the challenge of its
relations with Turkey – one of the most important elements of our
national security. What’s needed is a departure from routines, and
primarily the engagement of the prime minister in managing the crisis.

The strained relations between Ankara and Jerusalem affect the
balance of power in the entire region. A decade ago, Turkey was
an ally of the United States and maintained varied and extensive
relations with Israel. In recent years, it has been sliding toward
Syria and Iran and away from America, and has become a venomous
critic of Israel. If it slides any further, Turkey could become part
of an Iranian-Syrian-Turkish triangle that would be a key element in
Middle Eastern politics – to the detriment of Washington, Israel and
the moderate Arab states.

Turkey’s foreign and domestic policies have undergone a transformation
in the wake of developments upon which outside forces, including
Israel, have no influence. The end of the Cold War eliminated Ankara’s
dependence on Washington as a shield against the Soviet Union,
and the European Union’s de facto refusal to take Turkey in has
weakened the part of the country that advocate a secular, modernist
and pro-Western orientation. Most importantly, the Islamist party,
which has gradually shed the moderate cloak it started out with,
has been taking over the country’s power centers.

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The secular parties are weak, while the military is paralyzed by a
dilemma: Grabbing power in a military coup, as has occurred in the
past, would finally slam the door on the European dreams harbored
by the secular modernist camp the army represents. Meanwhile, the
government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been systematically wiping
out the opposition’s remaining power centers. A similar pattern has
emerged in relations with Israel: estrangement accompanied by calming
rhetoric, followed by hostile rhetoric and actions. Turkey’s role as
mediator between Israel and Syria served to cover up the course of
these developments, but it has ended in a breakdown.

There is not much Israel can do under these circumstances. The
sources that yielded the collaboration have for the most part dried
up. The Soviet Union is no more and Turkey has joined the radical
camp in the Arab world. The influence held by Washington and Europe
has diminished. The main assets Israel still wields in its ties with
Turkey are mutual economic and security interests, the need of the
Turkish ruling party to take into account the opinion of the army and
pro-Israeli elements, and the country’s goal of playing a central
role in regional politics. The Turkish leadership realizes that to
mediate between Syria and Israel, or to help the Palestinians, it
must maintain a dialogue with Israel.

To take advantage of its assets, Israel has to make a concerted
effort, managed by the top governmental echelon. A considerable part
of the damage caused last week would have been averted if the prime
minister had intervened earlier. He must ensure coordinated action
and division of responsibilities. The embassy and consulates in Turkey
must also be strengthened. Turkey is still a democratic country with
a developed economy and infrastructure, and with which Israel should
engage. Moreover, "Jewish diplomacy" – to which the Turks tend to
ascribe great importance – should be put into effect. Having already
made bitter enemies of the Greeks and the Armenians, they certainly
don’t want to do the same with the Jewish people.

It is a difficult and complex task, whose fruits will not be
immediately evident. The prime minister must place it high on his
agenda.