WAR IN THE REGION CAN HARDLY BEGIN, SAYS GORENBURG

Aysor
Jan 20 2010
Armenia

"I think, war in the region is hardly expectable next year. There
are two possible sides and zones of war: war between Russia and
Georgia, and war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Conflict in the
first-mentioned zone can hardly start as Georgia’s forces are too
weak; its president will hardly challenge Russia keeping in view
2008’s losses. The second-mentioned zone will probably remain frozen,
too," said in his interview with 1NewsAz agency Dmitry Gorenburg,
Ph.D. Political Science at Harvard University.

"If the Karabakh goes in war, superpowers’ position will depend on
situation. The side believed as aggressor, will hardly have backing,"
said Dmitry Gorenburg.

Moscow doesn’t want to pose risks to its economical relations with
Azerbaijan, but at the same time Russia considers Armenia as ‘a close
ally’, according to expert’s opinion.

The U.S. will probably back Azerbaijan standing from economical
reasons, but it should take into account powerful Armenian lobby in
the United States.

When asked whether the Turkey-Armenia border will open in 2010, Dmitry
Gorenburg said yes, it may happen this year. "Not 100 percent sure,
but I think it may happen this year. If not in 2010, then, probably,
next year, if neither crisis comes."