WILL THERE BE SIGNED A SECOND MEINDORF?
Karine Ter-Sahakyan

/PanARMENIAN.Net/
19.01.2010 GMT+04:00

If Sargsyan-Medvedev-Aliyev meeting really occurs, we can say that
Russian-American tandem Lavrov-Bradtke worked.

After the Russian Foreign Minister and OSCE Minsk Group American
Co-Chair visited Armenia, the central question of the week became
whether a second declaration will be signed in Moscow in case
Presidents Sargsyan, Aliyev and Medvedev meet there. Signing of
this declaration last but not least depends also on Turkey, which
could exert pressure on Baku. Although in light of recent statements
by Turkish Foreign Minister on the decision of the RA Constitutional
Court on ratification of the Protocols on Armenian-Turkish relations,
it appears that in near future ratification of the Protocols in
Turkish Parliament and adoption of any statement on Nagorno Karabakh
will be problematic.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ On the eve of the forthcoming meeting in Moscow,
Ilham Aliyev once again burst out into another "program" speech, in
which, as always, he turned everything upside down. In particular,
Aliyev declared that the document adopted on the regulation of the
Karabakh-Azerbaijani conflict at the summit of the OSCE Ministerial
Council in Athens "clearly shows the way to conflict settlement."

According to the President’s interpretation, the document states that
"the problem should be solved within the framework of territorial
integrity of countries. I believe that the key point is that for the
first time Armenia joined this document, signed it, thus admitting
settlement of the conflict within the framework of territorial
integrity. As for the issue of nations’ right to self-determination,
it can be solved within the territorial integrity of countries. All
international documents support exactly this kind of approach." As a
matter of principle, nothing new was said. Azeri authorities say only
what is pleasant to the ear of the "Azeri public". However, after
Munich, Aliyev a bit damped his warlike disposition, but could not
refrain this time, stating that Azerbaijan should further consolidate
its position by strengthening the economy and the military potential
of the country.

"Our total military expenditures amount to $ 2 billion. We must
further intensify our efforts in this direction. Strengthening of the
military and army potential in Azerbaijan plays a major role in the
negotiation process. I believe that the dynamics recently observed in
the negotiation process, i.e. the positive dynamics, is the result of
the growing economic, political and military potential of Azerbaijan,"
Aliyev said.

Well, everyone is allowed to threaten with words and the President
of Azerbaijan is no exception. But as we have already mentioned,
constant statements about the power of the Azerbaijani army can
drive the parties concerned to check whether Aliyev’s statements are
conformable to reality. Just the year of 1994 may repeat itself, when
Heydar Aliyev, in order to deter attack, agreed to a ceasefire, staying
away from the security zone around the Republic of Artsakh. It is
hard to say where the analogous policy of the current Azeri President
will drive Azerbaijan, as Ilham has neither the political influence
nor the flair of his father.

But, most likely, "Meindorf-2" will be signed. For some reason,
with its statement the Turkish Foreign Ministry intervened in the
decision of the RA Constitutional Court on the Protocols, which,
by the way, is considered interference in the internal affairs of a
state. But this can be explained by the fact that Ankara is going to
somewhat depart from Baku, and this statement is nothing but a way to
"justify itself". But, in principle, Turkey doesn’t have to justify
itself before Azerbaijan, and it is quite possible that this statement
may put an end to the lingering deaf-blind dialogue.

If Sargsyan-Medvedev-Aliyev meeting really occurs, we can say that
Russian-American tandem Lavrov-Bradtke worked. If not, then the
concerned parties would find other, weightier leverage to put pressure
on Azerbaijan, because in this case, Yerevan is calm and knows that
nobody and nothing can ever make her change her position. Will there be
a war? It is what mediators want the least and are most concerned to
prevent. And though in his recent speech Aliyev did not say anything
like "let’s go and liberate", we should be ready for everything, and,
first of all, for a war.