IS THE AKP UNDER 30 PERCENT?
Yusuf Kanli
Hurriyet
Jan 21 2010
Turkey
It is a well-known Nasreddin Hodja story: One morning, as Hodja was
passing through the field on his way to the market, kids playing
there asked him to bring them whistles. Only one of the kids gave
Hodja some money; the others just hoped he would do them a favor.
In the afternoon, Hodja returned from the market and presented a
whistle to the boy who gave him some money in the morning. As that
boy started joyfully blowing his whistle, the other kids surrounded
Hodja and complained, "We wanted whistles as well, why did not you
bring our whistles?!" Hodja’s answer was a clear one: "Who pays for
it blows the whistle!"
I always read results of public-opinion polls with strong skepticism,
perhaps also a consequence of the many past failures of such reports –
though some of them were in fact rather accurate. Indeed, the results
of many polls indicate that there has been some sort of "whistle"
relationship between the polling companies and the political parties
or establishments that are paying for such research.
I do not mean that public-opinion polls are all trivial. Yes, those
that are conducted with an impartial approach, using appropriate
questions and good sampling do indeed show the tendencies in a society
to a certain extent. But it is a fact as well that even a company
that might report almost accurate results for two or three elections
may also fail in this dynamic country, where constant change of the
national agenda is just ordinary.
I was reading yesterday a very interesting public-opinion poll
conducted by the respected SONAR polling company. Despite my strong
skepticism, I could not help but think, perhaps the polling company
sponsored by the ever-aggressive chief executive of the country gave
him as well a report similar to the one I was reading. Perhaps that
is why he has lately become all the more aggressive not only against
domestic opposition, but also in foreign policy. In this latter area,
even domestic opponents could not help but applaud his firm position,
be it the on the flare-up with Israel over insolence done by a deputy
foreign minister to the Turkish envoy or on the efforts by Armenia to
introduce some new terms to the Turkish-Armenian protocols awaiting
approval by the parliaments of the two countries.
After all, is it not a fact that Israel- or Armenia-bashing, or
thriller-style reports in the allegiant media about alleged coup
plots help to distract public attention from corruption allegations,
economic difficulties and rampant unemployment? From the continued
protest of the Tekel workers in the heart of Ankara or stories such
as the sale of a 12-year-old girl by her father, first to an Ankara
man in exchange for four cows and later to another man in exchange
for 10,000 Turkish Liras?
In any event, the poll was stressing that for the first time ever
since it came to power with a landmark 34 percent electoral support
in the 2002 elections, public support for the ruling Justice and
Development Party, or AKP, has dropped below 30 percent. Perhaps
the main opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP, sponsored
a similar poll and that was why CHP leader Deniz Baykal recently
claimed, angering the Supreme Sovereign Recep Tayyip Erdogan, that
support for the AKP was in the 20s.
CHP at AKP’s neck?
The SONAR poll was conducted between Jan. 3 and 13 with 3,000 people
in Ankara, Istanbul, İzmir, Adana, Antalya, Denizli, Diyarbakır,
Edirne, EskiÅ~_ehir, Gaziantep, Kayseri, Konya, Mersin, Samsun
and Van and reportedly had a margin of error of 1.73 percent. It
claimed that popular support for the parties totaled: AKP, 28 percent
(29.5 percent when undecided were distributed); CHP, 25.73 percent
(27.11 percent with the undecided); the Nationalist Movement Party,
or MHP, 19.37 percent (20.41 percent with the undecided); the Peace
and Democracy Party, or BDP, that replaced the closed-down Democratic
Society Party, or DTP, 6.28 percent; the Saadet (Felicity) Party,
or SP, 5.47 percent; the Democrat Party, or DP, 4.1 percent; the
Democratic Left Party, or DSP, 3.02 percent; the Great Unity Party,
or BBP, 2.21; and the rest 1.9 percent.
The poll also showed that an overwhelming 69.7 percent of the
participants considered economic difficulties and the high cost of
living as the most important problem facing the country; unemployment
ranked with 67.7 percent, while the "Kurdish opening" came next with
35.4 percent.
What was perhaps even more important was the apparent pessimism of
the respondents to the SONAR poll. Some 37 percent believed Turkey’s
economic situation will be far worse in the next six months, 20.1
percent believed it will improve and 10 percent believed there would
not be any improvement. More than 32 percent just had no idea.
I just cannot help but think what might the situation be if Turkey
had a real social democratic party focusing on economic issues and
suggesting programs for their resolution rather than engaging in a
fight over polemics with the AKP?