BAKU: Azeri, Armenian leaders to hold Russia-brokered talks Jan. 25

AzerNews Weekly, Azerbaijan
Jan 22 2010

Azeri, Armenian leaders to hold Russia-brokered talks Jan. 25

22-01-2010 05:28:55

The Azerbaijani, Armenian and Russian presidents are scheduled to
hold a tripartite meeting January 25 in the Russian town of Sochi to
discuss settlement of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh
conflict, according to the Armenian and Russian presidents’
press-services.
This will be the fourth trilateral meeting held in Russia in the past
year and three months. The first such meeting held in Moscow in
November 2008 concluded with the signing of a declaration. The
declaration, which was the first document signed by Azerbaijan and
Armenia in the past 16 years, called for settling the Garabagh
conflict in line with international law and respective resolutions
previously approved. The further meetings did not result in specific
agreements.
Pavel Salin of Russia’s Political Juncture Center believes there is
little hope that the Sochi negotiations will foster a positive shift
in Garabagh settlement. He opined that so long as Russia is the only
side actively mediating the peace process, no progress should be
expected.
The analyst said further that Turkey’s intensifying its mediating
efforts has played a role in arranging the next round of peace talks.
Ankara has lately displayed ambitions in this respect and aims at the
role of a regional powerhouse.
Salin said this activeness meets Moscow’s interests. `In my view, if
not only Russia but also Turkey acts as a sponsor of a conflict
resolution, there could be some turning point.’
Alexander Pikayev, an expert of the Moscow-based Institute of World
Economy and International Relations, does not anticipate substantial
advances in Garabagh settlement either. According to him, Russia is
not opposed to the planned opening of the Turkey-Armenia border, but
it is unwilling to make sacrifices for this.
`They know well in Russia that Armenia is not ready to make huge
concessions on the Garabagh issue for this sake,’ Pikayev claimed.
Alexei Vlasov, another Russian pundit, says reaching an agreement on
five occupied Azerbaijani districts around Upper Garabagh at the Sochi
meeting is possible. `The intensifying diplomatic efforts suggest that
an actual decision is likely to be passed in this regard.’
Azerbaijan and Armenia have been locked in conflict for nearly two
decades. Peace talks kicked off after a lengthy war that ended with
the signing of a cease-fire in 1994, but have brought little tangible
result so far. Armenia continues to occupy Upper Garabagh and seven
other Azerbaijani districts in defiance of international law. Russia
co-chairs the mediating OSCE Minsk Group, along with the U.S. and
France.*