news.az, Azerbaijan
Jan 23 2010
Turkey’s attempts are perceived cautiously in South Caucasus, expert
Sat 23 January 2010 | 05:48 GMT Text size:
Archil Gegeshidze News.Az interviews Archil Gegeshidze, Georgian
political scientist and head researcher of the Georgian fund of
strategic and international studies.
Do you think the new leadership of Georgia will be able to return
Abkhazia and South Ossetia through improving ties with Russia?
I see possible settlement of the conflict only on the basis of the
goodwill reconciliation between Abkhazs and Georgians. This is a long
process that may take years provided that no one, primarily, Russia
interferes. Theoretically, the relations with Russia may improve so
much that it will allow Georgians and Abkhazians to reconcile. Yet
today it is difficult to predict such developments on the background
of existing tensions in bilateral ties.
There is an opinion that Turkey’s intensification in the South
Caucasus stimulated by Russia may cause damage to Georgia’s
participation in regional projects through its replacing by Armenia.
What do you think about it?
If you imply laying additional pipelines via the South Caucasus in the
short-term perspectives, theoretically Armenia and Georgia can be the
competitors. Yet, definition of the routes of the future pipelines is
not the prerogative of only Turkey. There must be a feasibility study,
an agreement of the exporting country (Azerbaijan), investors’
readiness to finance the project and so on. As for the long-term
perspective, Armenia and Georgia are not competitors. Provided that
the conflict in Nagorno Karabakh is settled, our region will become
attractive for big investors and everyone will be satisfied with the
volumes of funds flowing to the region.
Do you think the peacekeeping mission proposed by Turkey in the South
Caucasus in the past two years is promising?
Turkey’s attempts to intensify in the region do not have clear
orientation. Therefore, they are perceived cautiously in all the South
Caucasus countries.
Can the Azerbaijan-Georgia interaction within such organizations as UN
and GUAM be considered effective in terms of the regional conflicts
settlement or is it necessary to involve additional mechanisms to
attract attention of the world community to these problems?
I think it would be difficult to attract attention of the world
community to the issue of restoration of the territorial integrity of
our countries through new joint diplomatic or political initiatives.
This issue has long been on the agenda in UN and GUAM. It is important
to preserve the current level of involvement of these and other
organizations. I see the only resource of raising interest of the
international community in conduction of the large scale process of
modernization of the democratic institutions in our countries. In this
case, everyone would understand that unsettled conflicts hamper the
successful passage from the old system to the European-type statehood.
Do you consider the soonest progress in the Karabakh settlement
possible taking into account the irreconcilable positions of the
sides?
It is difficult to predict the soonest progress but as Russia is
interested in preserving Karabakh conflict as frozen less than the
conflicts in Georgia I think in your case it would be easier to find
the solution.
Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az