RusData Dialine – Russian Press Digest
January 20, 2010 Wednesday

Russian president trying to drive Karabakh conflict out of deadlock

by Gennady Sysoyev

One of the key issues Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and his
Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sargsyan, focused on during their Monday
meeting was three-party talks on the Nagorny Karabakh conflict planned
for late January.

The leaders of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan will meet later this
month for another round of peace talks on the disputed Nagorny
Karabakh region, dragging on since the 1990s. Moscow seems to be keen
to achieve at least a semblance of a breakthrough in the peace process
it is trying to mediate, as it would help Russia strengthen its
strategic partnership with Armenia, on the one hand, and implement
large joint projects with Turkey and Azerbaijan, on the other.

A breakthrough in the Karabakh peace process, whether fact or
illusion, would help Moscow carry out its strategic projects in the
region. Although both Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov a few days ago spoke out against linking recent
steps to normalize Turkish- Armenian relations with the Karabakh
conflict, the two processes are obviously interrelated. Turkey simply
cannot ignore the opinion of its ally Azerbaijan, which is strongly
against a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement leading to real advances in
the Karabakh conflict resolution.

Azerbaijan suspects that the Kremlin might try to use certain tools to
pressure Armenia for concessions. Rasim Musabekov, a well-known
political analyst of Azerbaijan, said: "One should keep in mind
Armenia’s tight economic situation at the moment. The country’s
government expects Russia to provide security guarantees and economic
support in addition to preliminary conditions concerning Karabakh.
Depending on how Armenia behaves in this situation and what it asks
for, Russia is likely to provide the required support and not let down
its ally."

Moscow has recently made a major step in supporting Armenia: It has
agreed to cut the price of natural gas supplies to Armenia to $180
from $200 for 1,000 cubic meters for the period between April 1, 2010
and April 1, 2011.

According to Russian government sources, Armenia is also lobbying for
the renewal of a $250 million VTB credit line opened 18 months ago and
suspended then due to the economic downturn.