WPS Agency, Russia
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
January 22, 2010 Friday

THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH PROCESS CAME TO GORKI

by Gamid Gamidov, Aik Dzhanpoladyan, Gennady Sysoev

PRESIDENTS OF RUSSIA AND ARMENIA DISCUSSED A TRILATERAL MEETING
DEDICATED TO NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT; President of Russia Dmitry
Medvedev met with his Armenian colleague Serzh Sargsyan. Organization
of a trilateral meeting of the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and
Russia dedicated to Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was the main topic of
negotiations. It seems that Moscow is interested in creation of at
least a visibility of breakthrough in Nagorno-Karabakh regulation. On
the one hand, this will enable it to strengthen strategic partnership
relations with Armenia. On the other hand, this will help it to
develop ambitious projects with Turkey and Azerbaijan.

President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev met with his Armenian colleague
Serzh Sargsyan in Gorki residence in Moscow Region. Organization of a
trilateral meeting of the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia
dedicated to Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was the main topic of
negotiations. It seems that Moscow is interested in creation of at
least a visibility of breakthrough in Nagorno-Karabakh regulation. On
the one hand, this will enable it to strengthen strategic partnership
relations with Armenia. On the other hand, this will help it to
develop ambitious projects with Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Russia started taking more active intermediary efforts in this area
lately. Defense Minister of Armenia Seyran Oganyan and leader of
Nagorno-Karabakh Bako Saakyan visited Moscow recently. Previously,
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had a short visit to Yerevan.
Approximately at the same time Moscow was visited by Prime Minister of
Turkey Tayip Erdogan who discussed not only energy projects but also
situation in the region, first of all, the problem of
Nagorno-Karabakh, with the President and the Prime Minister of Russia.

The wish of Moscow to move the Nagorno-Karabakh process from the dead
point is explained not only by its wish to get laurels of a
peacekeeper. A breakthrough in the regulation (or at least its clear
visibility) will help Moscow to develop its strategic projects in the
region. Despite that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov have spoken recently against connection of the
starting normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia with
the Nagorno-Karabakh regulation, there is a connection between these
processes: Ankara cannot ignore of its ally Azerbaijan that is against
the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement to real progress of the problem of
Nagorno-Karabakh.

Baku presumes that "The Kremlin may use leverage to pressurize Yerevan
to achieve certain progress from it."

Moscow already took a serious step for support of the economy of
Armenia. Dmitry Medvedev expressed a hope that "the crisis dive will
come to an end and the tools will start working" about which the
presidents "agreed both in the field of economic and military and
foreign political cooperation." This circumstance may push Yerevan
towards maximum flexibility in negotiations with Baku with mediation
of Moscow.

In any case, presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan may meet once again
before the trilateral summit: representative of the US in the Minsk
group Robert Bradtke announced that such meeting would take place this
week. The Russian and the French co-chairs of the Minsk group will
arrive to Armenia. Thus, efforts of Russia will be supported by other
intermediaries.

According to sources close to the process of Nagorno-Karabakh
regulation, Moscow will hardly be able to offer any fundamentally new
recipes to the parties. Dmitry Medvedev will only try to persuade his
colleagues from Armenia and Azerbaijan that achievement of mutually
acceptable formulations is realistic because, according to estimates
of Moscow, Baku and Yerevan are close to an agreement on the content
of the interim status of Nagorno-Karabakh "to a significant extent"
and "have come closely" to settlement of the matter of voting about
its status. If Yerevan and Baku agree with this, the Kremlin will be
able to announce a "serious progress" in Nagorno-Karabakh regulation.

Source: Kommersant, January 19, 2010, p. 3
[translated from Russian]