WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF WAR BREAKING OUT IN THE REGION? ARMENIAN ANALYSTS RESPOND

Tert.am
13:19 ~U 26.01.10

Baku continues to make threats that if the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
is not resolved peacefully, it will resort to military pressure. As
early as yesterday, prior to the trilateral meeting of the presidents
of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia in Sochi, Ramiz Mehdiyev, head
of Azerbaijan’s presidential staff, issued the latest blow: if the
conflict is not resolved through peaceful means, they will search for
"alternative ways."

Tert.am attempted to ask Armenian analysts how likely it is, in the
context of threats from Azerbaijan, that a war will – once again –
break out in the region.

The possibility of war beginning again has always been great,
and the reason it hasn’t started has been because of Armenia’s and
Azerbaijan’s governing authorities, said political analyst Levon
Melik-Shahnazaryan. According to him, "threats for war are becoming
somewhat ludicrous, because it’s difficult to say beforehand who will
win the war."

Another analyst, Sergey Shakaryan, believes that Azerbaijan has issued
so many threats over the year that "they have placed the competency
of Azerbaijani officials in the situation under doubt."

"If Azerbaijan was confident that it could resolve some issue or
another through military means, it would’ve started a war a long time
ago. Though it too understands that, in the case of announcing war,
it finds itself in a serious situation," said Shakaryan, while noting
that Azerbaijan likewise made guarantees to the co-chairs of mediator
countries for a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

"The champion of threats" is what Republican Party of Armenia (HHK)
press spokesperson Edward Sharmazanov says to refer to the president
of Azerbaijan. In Sharmazanov’s opinion, even others in the region
don’t take Azerbaijani authorities’ threatening statements seriously.

Referring to the likelihood of war breaking out in the region, the
HHK spokesperson said that theoretically nothing can be excluded,
but "practically, it’s unlikely."

"The first time Azerbaijan started a war and saw what a sad ending
it had for [the country]," said Sharmazanov.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress