THE SHOW IS OVER… THE PROTOCOLS ARE DEAD!
By Harut Sassounian
Panorama.am
17:53 26/01/2010
The show is finally over! The international community is no
longer buying the endless Turkish excuses for refusing to ratify
the Protocols. Armenian officials, who naively believed that Turkey
would open its border and establish diplomatic relations with Armenia,
are beginning to question the Turks’ sincerity and contemplating the
possibility of the Protocols’ collapse.
Now the blame game starts! Whose fault is it that the Protocols are
not being ratified? In my view, the Turks are the ones to be blamed
for deceiving the international community all along. It was never the
intention of the Turkish leaders to carry out their publicly stated
plans to normalize relations with Armenia. They were simply engaged
in a ploy to obstruct what they believed to be Pres. Obama’s solemn
pledge to recognize the Armenian Genocide, and to facilitate Turkey’s
admission to the European Union (EU), since open borders are one of
the key prerequisites for EU membership.
Without taking a single positive step, Turkey created the false
impression of reconciling with Armenia, thereby dissuading Pres. Obama
from using the term "Genocide" in his April 24 statement. Turkish
leaders also succeeded in exploiting the Protocols to generate
favorable worldwide publicity for their country.
During long and difficult negotiations, Turkey demanded that in return
for opening the border and establishing diplomatic relations, Armenia
withdraw from Karabagh (Artsakh), set up an international commission
to study the facts of the Genocide, and acknowledge the territorial
integrity of Turkey.
After Russia, the United States, and Europe applied intense pressure
on both sides, Armenia and Turkey made a series of compromises.
Armenia reluctantly agreed to establish an ambiguous "historical
commission," which was not explicitly linked to the Genocide. Armenia
also had to accept a reference in the Protocols to prior international
treaties that confirmed Armenian territorial concessions to Turkey,
but did not specifically mention the capitulatory Treaty of Kars.
Furthermore, the Protocols included a clause that called for
non-intervention in the internal affairs of other states, implying
that Armenia could no longer support Artsakh, because that would be
construed as interference in Azerbaijan’s domestic issues.
Since the Protocols signed on October 10 did not fulfill all of
Turkey’s demands, its leaders started threatening not to ratify the
Protocols or open the border with Armenia until the Artsakh conflict
is resolved in Azerbaijan’s favor. In other words, Turkey was trying
to make up for any deficiencies in the Protocols by holding their
ratification hostage to its precondition on Artsakh.
The ratification of the Protocols became even more complicated when
Azerbaijan began to threaten its "Big Brother" Turkey for considering
the opening of the border with its archenemy — Armenia. The Azeris
wanted the Turkish blockade to continue until Armenia is forced to
acknowledge Azerbaijan’s jurisdiction over Artsakh. The Azeri threat
of raising natural gas prices to Turkey and redirecting some of its
oil to Russia made Turkish leaders even more reticent to consummate
their agreement with Armenia.
To appease Azerbaijan, Turkey demanded that Russia, Europe and the
United States pressure Armenia into making concessions on Artsakh.
This Turkish request, however, fell on deaf ears. The international
community realized that the attempt to simultaneously resolve two
thorny issues — the Artsakh conflict and Armenia-Turkey Protocols —
would lead to solving neither one!
Realizing that hardly anyone outside Turkey and Azerbaijan was
supporting their demands on Artsakh, Turkish leaders set their sights
on another convenient scapegoat: The Constitutional Court of Armenia.
Although the Court decided on January 12 that the obligations
stipulated in the Protocols complied with the constitution, it also
issued several clarifications and limitations that restricted the
Turkish government’s loose interpretation of the Protocols.
Prime Minister Erdogan and Foreign Minister Davutoglu brazenly
threatened to abandon the Protocols outright, unless the Armenian
Constitutional Court "corrected" its decision — an impossible task
under Armenian laws! The State Dept. quickly sided with Armenia,
rejecting the Turkish claim that the Constitutional Court’s ruling
contradicted the "letter and spirit" of the agreement. Of course,
the State Department’s true intent was to forestall the Armenian
Parliament from adding any reservations on the Protocols at the time
of ratification.
Since the Chairman of the Armenian Parliament had already announced
that he would not take any action until the Turkish Parliament ratified
the Protocols first, the ball is now in Turkey’s court. The Protocols
have been collecting dust in Ankara ever since they were submitted
to the Parliament on October 21, 2009. The Foreign Ministers of
Armenia and Turkey had stated in their joint announcement of last
August that the Protocols should be ratified "within a reasonable
timeframe." Armenian officials recently reminded Turkey of that loose
deadline, adding that Armenia would be forced to take unspecified
counter-actions should Turkey not ratify the Protocols by February
or March, at the latest!
At this juncture, neither Armenia nor Turkey is willing to back down
from its recalcitrant position. Should Turkey’s leaders remove Artsakh
and the Constitutional Court as preconditions, they would risk not
only losing Azerbaijan as an ally, but seriously jeopardize their
party’s majority in next year’s parliamentary election. Similarly,
Armenia’s leaders can neither give up Artsakh nor "correct" the
ruling of the Constitutional Court. No amount of outside pressure
can therefore force the two governments to reverse course. That is
why I believe the Protocols cannot be resuscitated!
Turkey came very close to deceiving Armenia and the rest of the world
with these infamous Protocols. Fortunately, they failed before causing
lasting damage to Armenia’s national interests.