TURKEY-ARMENIA PACT HITS SNAGS
Lragir.am
28/01/10
Marc Champion, Marcus Walker and Stephen Fidler
A deal between Turkey and Armenia to open their border and establish
diplomatic relations after generations of dispute over genocide
allegations and territory is under growing threat of collapse.
Armenia is pushing for rapid ratification of the deal, signed
in October, while Turkey has a longer time frame. On Wednesday,
Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev added to concerns for the deal when
he said he was confident Turkey wouldn’t ratify the agreement until
Armenia has returned Azeri territory that it occupies, including the
mainly ethnic Armenian region of Nagorno Karabakh.
‘There is a common understanding in the region that there should
be a first step by Armenia to start the liberation of the occupied
territories,’ Mr. Aliyev said in an interview with The Wall Street
Journal in the margins of the World Economic Forum in Davos,
Switzerland. He said he was ‘fully satisfied’ with Turkey’s
understanding of the issue, despite harshly criticizing Turkey’s
handling of it in the past.
A History of Dangerous Relations
‘If the two issues are disconnected, then probably Armenia will freeze
negotiations with Azerbaijan (over Nagorno Karabakh),’ said Mr.
Aliyev, adding that he believed economic pressure was one of the main
incentives for Armenia to come to the table. Mr. Aliyev has warned
previously that such an outcome could lead to renewed war.
Turkey’s leaders, including Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
have said repeatedly that the border opening and settlement of the
Nagorno Karabakh conflict are linked.
There is no sign of progress in the 15-year-old peace talks. But some
ambiguity remains in Turkey’s position. The territorial dispute isn’t
mentioned in October’s protocols.
‘Now we are approaching the moment when things get more and more
difficult,’ said Vigen Sargsyan, deputy chief of staff to the Armenian
president. Pressure on the Armenian president to abandon the effort
is building strongly as the next annual April 24 U.S. presidential
commemoration of the 1915 genocide approaches, creating a tight
Armenian schedule to see the protocols ratified.
Turkish officials, by contrast, talk about an open-ended process that
could last a year or more if necessary. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet
Davutoglu also recently expressed anger at a decision by Armenia’s
constitutional court that he said in effect puts conditions on the
deal-a claim Mr. Sargsyan dismissed.
Mr. Sargsyan said that while Armenia’s government is sending
ratification papers for the deal to parliament, it is also preparing
legislation to enable the president to withdraw his signature from
treaties. ‘If this opportunity is lost it will push the whole region
back, not to where we started when talks began but beyond that,’ said
Mr. Sargsyan. He said trust between the two sides would be destroyed.
Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in protest at the
occupation by Armenia-backed forces of Nagorno Karabakh and seven
districts around it that were seized as buffer zones. But in the
wake of the war between Georgia and Russia in August 2008, Turkey’s
government said it was ready to negotiate an end to Armenia’s
isolation, as Ankara sought a bigger role in the Caucasus region.
By last Spring, the two sides had drafted protocols outlining a deal
that would open the borders, establish diplomatic and trade relations
and set up a joint commission to examine historical issues, including
the 1915 Ottoman massacre of up to 1.5 million ethnic Armenians,
in what is now Eastern Turkey, which Armenia and many historians
consider genocide. But Turkey’s leaders refused at the last minute to
sign, in the face of fierce opposition from Mr. Aliyev and opponents
within Turkey.
The U.S., Russia and the European Union have strongly backed the
Turkish-Armenian initiative, saying it could help to stabilize a
region that is strategically important for energy supplies.
Mr. Aliyev has expressed his anger over the Turkey-Armenia talks
by threatening to reroute Azeri natural gas and oil exports away
from Turkey. ‘Azerbaijan can export gas in four directions: Turkey,
Georgia, Iran and Russia,’ Mr. Aliyev said Wednesday. ‘We can expand
volumes of gas in each of these directions.’
The Azeri president also expressed frustration over the delays in
construction of the EU’s planned Nabucco pipeline, which would carry
natural gas from the Caspian Sea to EU markets via Turkey. ‘Gazprom
has said it will buy whatever we supply. If Nabucco is delayed, we
will sell more to Gazprom, it is clear,’ said Mr. Aliyev, referring
to the Russian state gas giant OAO Gazprom.