NUCLEAR DEAL – RUSSIA VACILLATES ON IRAN SANCTIONS

Global Arab Network –
Thursday, 28 January 2010 22:40

On January 16, 2010, diplomats from six key powers met to discuss
possible new sanctions against Iran over its nuclear weapons
development program. The meeting, however did not end with any
agreement, according to Russian Foreign Ministry Deputy Sergei
Ryabkov.[1] According to Ryabkov, "the effectiveness of [additional]
sanctions is highly doubtful." He further said: "We will look at
which measures can be developed in order to stimulate political and
diplomatic solutions to the problem at hand."[2]

However, on December 1, 2009, a Russian diplomat declared that Russia
would join any consensus on more sanctions against Tehran. ~DIf there
is a consensus on Iran sanctions, we will not stand aside. […] We
will be thinking about sanctions but this is not an issue of the
next few hours or weeks. We would rather have Iran cooperating more
openly and consistently with the IAEA and showing clear steps to
lift concerns […] than introducing sanctions against Iran," said
the Russian diplomatic source.[3]

In September 2009, Russia’s president Dmitry Medvedev said that
sanctions were seldom productive but sometimes "inevitable".[4]
However, shortly after these revelations, foreign ministry spokesman
Andrei Nesterenko said: "This language of sanctions, it is not our
language. It has already been said many times."[5]

In October 2009, Russian Prime minister Vladimir Putin has warned
Western powers that they will not gain anything by trying to intimidate
Tehran.[6] "Sanctions in relation to Iran are hardly possible in
the near future," Sergei Prikhodko, the Kremlin’s top foreign policy
aide, said.[7]

In November 2009 Russia and China both supported a resolution drawn
by the IAEA denouncing Iran’s nuclear weapons development program. The
IEAE voted for a resolution calling for an immediate freeze on nuclear
enrichment in Iran.[8]

However, both Russia and China have historically negated the imposition
of new sanctions on Iran although Medvedev hinted that the Russian
position might shift due to Tehran’s disclosure its secret uranium
enrichment site near Qom.[9] Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin
has been vocally and highly critical of such steps in the past.[10]
In his meeting with Clinton, Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia was
"very reserved" about seeking further sanctions: "Threats of sanctions
and threats of pressure in the current situation are, in our opinion,
counterproductive," he said.[11]

Russia has the strongest ties with Tehran of any world power. Its
capacity to provide technical help for the Iranian nuclear drive
is seen by some experts as giving it an unmatched power of leverage
in Tehran.[12]

Lavrov said that for the moment it would be wrong to talk about a
fourth round of UN Security Council sanctions on Iran.[13] He added
that sanctions could only be used if diplomacy and politics fail and
this could not be said in the case of Iran.[14]

Russia is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, allowing
it to veto any sanctions resolutions. Russia now seems to be placing
itself as an arbiter in the dispute between Iran and the West.[15]

Uranium deal with Iran A deal drawn by the IAEA and approved by
Western governments in Geneva in September 2009 suggested that Iran
would export a stockpile of its low-enriched uranium to Russia for
refinement for a reactor in Tehran which makes medical isotopes. In
October 2009, Iran demanded changes, challenging the basis of the
agreement between the US, France and Russia.[16]

Russia meddling in Iran Russia has a key role to play in encouraging
Iran to comply with international demands. On September 7, 2009,
Israel’s Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Moscow and
reassured the Russian leadership that Israel would not launch
unilateral pre-emptive strikes against Iranian nuclear installations
– on the condition that Moscow promises not to equip Iran with the
S-300 system, an offensive missile capability that could deliver
nuclear warheads.[17]

In October 2009, Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu handed over a list and
evidence to Moscow, showing that Russian scientists have been helping
Iran to develop a nuclear bomb. Apparently Russian companies have
also supplied material that has been used by Iran in the production
of ballistic missiles.[18]

Overview Russian-Iranian ties are being tested: Moscow is concerned
over Iran’s nuclear weapons development program and Iran is concerned
over big business deals with Russia that have been subject to
political delays.

Iran has accused Russia of deliberately delaying work and progress
with regard to the Bushehr nuclear facility. Moscow denied that this
was politically motivated.[19]

Russia’s relations with Iran are based on realpolitik and energy. The
Russian-Iranian relationship is anchored firmly in the respective
countries’ perceptions of national self-interest and the strengthening
of energy ties.

For Russia, Iran is a regional power and an important trade partner.

Russia needs Iran for arms sales, as well as for maintaining the
security of Russia’s southern borders; Iran needs Russia for military
equipment, energy security and political protection at the U.N. and
the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Diplomatic Relations On 16 June 2009, Russian President Dmitry
Medvedev was the first to send his official congratulations to Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad on his "re-election" as president of Iran.[20]

In June 2009, Ahmadinejad’s first official trip abroad as Iran’s
"re-elected" President was to Russia, which Medvedev described as
a positive symbol which allowed for "hope for progress in bilateral
relations", describing the controversy over the Iranian elections as
an "internal affair" in which the Russian government did not see fit
to intervene.[21]

On this trip in June 2009, Ahmadinejad attended the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization Summit at Yekaterinburg, to which Iran was
an ‘observer state’. The organization represents a loose-knit group
of central Asian countries, which cooperate on a number of economic,
cultural and security issues and the presidents of all of the member
states congratulated Ahmadinejad on his ‘electoral victory’.[22]

Yet the G8, of which Russia is a member, called for an immediate
cessation of violence in Iran following the chaos of the disputed
elections in June 2009 and called upon Iran to find a peaceful solution
to the political crisis.[23] However on July 14, 2009, the Russian
foreign ministry announced that Russia would not agree to tougher
sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program, in exchange for a
new nuclear arms cut deal with the United States.[24]

Russia has engaged in military dealings with Iran, signing an ongoing
contract in 2007 to deliver Russian S-300 air defense systems to Iran,
the latest models of which have a range of up to roughly 120 miles
and can intercept aircraft and ballistic missiles at altitudes of
over 16 miles.[25]

In June 2009, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called upon
his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to prevent the completion of
the arms deal. The Russian government has already postponed delivery
of missile defense systems to Iran due to Western pressure, yet the
Russian government has recognized Russia’s economic need for arms
sales profits.[26]

Iran and Russia have engaged in multilateral dealings, most notably at
the Caspian Sea States Summits. At these summits, the two countries
have expanded their cooperation on energy issues and called for
increased vigilance against Western influence in the Caspian region
and cooperation between the Caspian littoral states.[27]

Russia has extended its relations with Iran into the field of
nuclear technology, helping the development of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear
complex[28] despite having voted in favor of UN sanctions against Iran
due to its illegal nuclear program., According to Michael Fenenbock,
founder of the organization ‘DeNuke Iran’, Russia has supplied
blueprints for Iran’s development of a heavy water nuclear reactor
and Russian companies have provided the Iranians with uranium mining
and milling technology.

In July 2009, American President Barack Obama, on his trip to Russia,
tried to encourage the Russian government to persuade Iran to abandon
its nuclear programme by suggesting that if this were to happen, the
US would halt its Eastern European missile defense initiative.[29]
Medvedev had already stated in March 2009, that while Moscow would
cooperate with Washington over the Iranian issue, there would be no
"quid pro quo"-deal with the US over missile defense and Iran.[30]

Economic relations In August 1995, Russia and Iran signed a 10-year
contract under which Russia would supply nuclear fuel for the
Bushehr plant.[31] Some Western experts pointed out that the design
of the Bushehr reactor allowed it to make weapons-grade nuclear
materials. Under the contract terms, Russia was to train the staff
of the power plant which meant that Russia transferred know-how and
expertise thus accelerating Iran’s nuclear research.[32] In January
2008, Iran received the final shipment of uranium fuel from Russia
for the Bushehr nuclear power plant.[33]

The Iranians have given the Russians sizeable sums to support
development of the Bushehr nuclear reactors, and have committed at
least $700 million for conventional armaments. In return, Russia
has blocked international sanctions tied to Iran’s nuclear program,
and supported the Iran-India oil pipeline.[34] On December 25,
Iran signed a contract with Russia for the delivery of advanced
S-300 air defense missile systems to Iran. An advanced version of
the S-300 missile system, called S-300PMU1 (SA-20 Gargoyle), has
a range of over 150 kilometers (about 100 miles) and can intercept
ballistic missiles and aircraft at low and high altitudes, making
this system an effective tool for warding off possible air strikes on
Iran. Russia earlier supplied Iran with 29 Tor-M1 air defense systems
under a $700-million contract signed in late 2005.[35] The work at
Bushehr is worth $800 million to Russia and provides profitable and
useful employment for approximately 1,500 CIS citizens on site with
a further 20,000 employed inside Russia itself, keeping 300 Russian
firms in business.[36] The missile defense system, which Russia agreed
to sell Iran in 2007 is a deal worth $700 million.[37]

Russia still failed to fulfill to deliver the S-300 air defense
missiles to Tehran. In October 2009 Iran complained Moscow was
now six months late on delivery.[38] Alaedin Borujurdi, head of
the Iranian parliament’s national security committee, warned Russia
that any further delay in selling the S-300 missiles to Tehran would
"seriously damage" relations between the countries.[39][40]

In 2005, Russia was Iran’s seventh largest trading partner, with 5.33%
of all exports to Iran originating from Russia.[41] The value of
arms transfer agreements between Iran and Russia increased from $300
million between 1998 and 2001 to $1.7 billion between 2002 and 2005.

After China and India, Iran is the third largest buyer of Russian arms:
between 1991 and 2002, Iran bought some $3.6 billion worth of Russian
military equipment, making up 54% of Iran’s total arms imports during
the period.[42]

Iranian reports have announced that the two countries were discussing
130 economic projects worth over $100 billion and aimed at boosting
bilateral trade from the current $2 billion to $200 billion in the next
10 years. Russia and Iran hold between them about 20 per cent of the
global oil reserves and 42 per cent of natural gas. Russian oil and
gas companies are already involved in Iranian hydrocarbon projects,
and at its December 13, 2007 meeting in Moscow, the Russian-Iranian
trade commission discussed plans to set up a joint gas venture to
explore deposits in the Persian Gulf and Central Asia.[43]

On February 20, 2008, Gazprom Chairman Alexei Miller held talks
in Tehran with Iranian Oil Minister Gholam-Hossein Nozari. While
little was released about the meeting, the pair agreed to increase
Russian involvement in developing Iran’s massive South Pars and North
Kish offshore gas fields in the Persian Gulf. They also agreed to
Russia laying oil and natural gas pipelines. Further agreement was
apparently reached on mutual cooperation in the oil and gas sectors
in the Caspian Sea. Gazprom also agreed to build a gas reservoir in
Iran as well as a refinery in Armenia. Moving swiftly ahead, the two
sides agreed to hold expert-level meetings and sign agreements within
the next two months.[44]

On May 13, 2008, Ahmadinejad said he thought relations with Moscow
would continue to develop following the inauguration of Dmitri Medvedev
as Russian president May 7.[45] On April 30, 2008, National Security
Council Acting Secretary Valentin Sobolev said: "[…] Russia confirms
the principles of relations [with Iran] and its policy doesn’t depend
on who is in power today."[46]

On July 13, 2008, the Chief Executive of Gazprom, Alexei Miller,
met with Ahmadinejad and signed an agreement to develop Iranian oil
and gas fields. Iran, according to the agreement, offered Gazprom
an extended package for the development of oil and gas fields;
construction of refineries; transfer of oil from the Caspian Sea
to the Sea of Oman; development of Iran’s North Azadegan oil field;
exchange of technology and experience; and the possible participation
of Gazprom in the planned pipeline between Iran, India and Pakistan.

The accord also includes the future formation of a joint company
between the two countries, for cooperation in oil and gas.[47]

In October 2008, Russia and Iran, along with Qatar, announced the
formation of a new ‘Opec-style’ cartel which would control 60%
of the world’s gas supplies, creating fears that prices would rise
and increasing the Western suspicion that Russia and Iran would use
energy to pursue political goals.[48] Russia appears keen on directing
Iran’s gas exports to Asia while maintaining its own monopoly over
the European market.[49]

In December 2008, Russia and Iran signed a series of protocols to
boost two-way trade in 2009, foreseeing cooperation in banking,
transportation, investment and other joint venture fields.[50]

Gazprom is now poised to begin development of two or three additional
blocks of South Pars, the world’s largest gas condensate deposit. The
massive South Pars project consists of 24 phases of development and
by 2014 is projected to produce 751 million cubic meters per day.

Gazprom’s agreement with Iran reportedly includes exploration,
development, transportation, processing and marketing.[51]

Iran has announced a massive rearmament program, spending $1 billion
per year over the next 20-25 years. At the current rate of expenditure
this could amount to $300 million per year which, spread over 25
years, would mean Iran would import Russian weaponry worth $7.5-$8
billion at current prices. With Russia’s arms exports running at
around $5bn a year, this is a market, which the Russian government,
and its military industry, would not want to lose.[52]

Global Arab Network

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