STRATFOR: SITUATION AROUND NAGORNO KARABAKH MAY GET OUT OF CONTROL
ArmInfo
2010-01-29 11:49:00
ArmInfo. The situation around Nagorno Karabakh may get out of control
not because Russia, Turkey and Iran want it, but because the internal
dynamics of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict may prevail and we
shall turn out to be in a situation like that in 1914, when a local
conflict in Bosnia provoked a world war, Stratfor analyst for Eurasia
Marco Papic said.
According to him, the Nagorno Karabakh is currently a very important
topic, since Azerbaijan and Armenia are surrounded by three growing
regional powers: Russia in the north, Turkey in the west and Iran in
the south-east. Therefore, he said, interaction among these regional
powers will depend on the situation around Armenia and Azerbaijan. The
analyst thinks that the interest of Russia in this conflict from the
very beginning was the following: to involve Turkey in an unrecoverable
conflict which cannot be settled basically. He said it really spares
Turkey’s time and energy in the region, where Russia feels quite
alleviated. Moreover, Papic said that Azerbaijan seems to slowly move
closer to Russia, as it feels that Turkey neglects its interests when
negotiating with Armenia.