CAUCASUS MOST LIKELY FLASHPOINT IN EURASIA – US INTELLIGENCE CHIEF
Dennis C. Blair

News.Az
Wed 03 February 2010 | 07:45 GMT

The US Senate’s Select Committee on Intelligence held an open hearing
on "Current and Projected Threats to the United States" on 2 February.

"The unresolved conflicts of the Caucasus provide the most likely
flashpoints in the Eurasia region," the USA’s director of national
intelligence, Dennis C. Blair, told the hearing.

"Moscow’s expanded military presence in and political-economic ties to
Georgia’s separatist regions of South Ossetia and sporadic low-level
violence increase the risk of miscalculation or overreaction leading
to renewed fighting," Blair said.

"Although there has been progress in the past year toward
Turkey-Armenia rapprochement, this has affected the delicate
relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and increases the risk
of a renewed conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh."

Blair said in his Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence
Community that America’s relations with Russia could suffer as the
United States seeks closer ties with Georgia and other former Soviet
states.

He said Russian President Dmitry Medvedev viewed Moscow’s former
Soviet neighbours as a "zone of privileged interests", which could
undermine relations with Washington.

"The role Moscow plays regarding issues of interest to the United
States is likely to turn on many factors, including developments
on Russia’s periphery and the degree to which Russia perceives US
policies as threatening to what its leadership sees as vital Russian
interests," Blair said.

"There have been encouraging signs in the past year that Russia is
prepared to be more cooperative with the United States, as illustrated
by President Medvedev’s agreement last summer to support air transit
through Russia of lethal military cargo in support of coalition
operations in Afghanistan and Moscow’s willingness to engage with the
United States on constructive ways to reduce the nuclear threat from
Iran. I remain concerned, however, that Russia looks at relations with
its neighbours in the former Soviet space – an area characterized
by President Medvedev as Russia’s ‘zone of privileged interests’ –
largely in zero-sum terms, vis-a-vis the United States, potentially
undermining the US-Russian bilateral relationship. Moscow, moreover,
has made it clear it expects to be consulted closely on missile
defence plans and other European security issues."

Blair also dwelt on the security problems posed by the North Caucasus.

"On the domestic front, Moscow faces tough policy choices in the face
of an uptick in violence in the past year in the chronically volatile
North Caucasus, which is fueled in part by a continuing insurgency,
corruption, organized crime, clan competition, endemic poverty,
radical Islamist penetration, and a lagging economy that is just
beginning to recover from the global economic crisis. Some of the
violence elsewhere in Russia, such as a deadly train bombing in late
November 2009, may be related to instability in the North Caucasus.

"In addressing nationwide problems, Medvedev talks about Russia’s
need to modernize the economy, fight corruption, and move toward a
more rule-of-law-based and pluralistic political system, but he faces
formidable opposition within the entrenched elite who benefit from
the status quo. Turbulence in global energy markets was a painful
reminder to Moscow of the Russian economy’s overdependence on
energy, dramatizing the need for constructive steps toward economic
modernization and diversification. However, moving forward on issues
such as reforming Russia’s state corporations or creating conditions
more conducive to foreign investors could produce a backlash by those
forces who might lose from competition."

Dennis Blair began his report on a cautious note.

"We see some improvements, but also several entrenched problems
and slow progress in some areas for the foreseeable future. Several
large-scale threats to fundamental US interests will require increased
attention, and it is on one of these threats that I will focus our
initial discussion."

Blair chose the cyber threat as the first area of concern in his
report. He went on to look at the situation worldwide with special
mention of the Middle East, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq and
North Korea. He also looked at the threats posed by global economic
problems and climate change.