PEACE THROUGH WAR
Hakob Badalyan

Lragir.am
04/02/10

If any analytical center predicts war between Armenia and Azerbaijan,
its prediction is said to be determined by the character of the
activities of that center. It is an analytical center, it can assess
a war as possible as peace. And this idea is quite just. But when the
head of the U.S. National Intelligence dwells on the possibility of a
war, the seriousness seems to be more. And the U.S. Senate Committee
of Intelligence dwelt on the likelihood of a war between Armenia
and Azerbaijan.

But alongside with the seriousness of his post and his statement, we
have to note that when two or three countries are under the ceasefire
regime, the resumption of war between them is always possible until
there is no pact of peace. More, even the pact of peace is not a
ban for the resumption of war. Besides this, before the Georgian
and Russian, Ossetian war, the U.S. State Intelligence Service does
not seem to have spoken about its probability though the situation
in that conflict area was tenser than the current situation in the
Armenian and Azerbaijani conflict zone.

In other words, even if the post of the head of the U.S. state
intelligence is important consequently so are his statements
nevertheless, they are not to be taken as "prophecy". The point is
that it is not such an easy task to start military actions in the
Karabakh conflict. It is possible only in case one of the mediator
countries has such an intention, more concretely the U.S. or Russia.

Only they are able to order any of the parties to start a war, or to
provoke such a thing happen. But if the U.S. and Russia come to such
an agreement, the situation is possible not to arrive to a war because
none of the conflicting parties is able to prevent any fundamental
agreement between Russia and U.S. knowing that otherwise they will
force a war. Alongside with this, the point is that the Armenian
government is likely not to be against concessions but says to the
mediator countries that the only way for them is the war because
in peace conditions, the Armenian power is unable to convince the
Armenian nation about the need to make concessions. On the other hand,
the question is whether the current situation of the Armenian society
and the political field enables them to think that making concessions
in peace conditions is above the forces of the Armenian government.

Hardly. Maybe the problem is the Karabakh society but it is in such
an informational blockade that it can be forced any opinion expedient
for the government moreover, the Karabakh society is adapted to the
peace and free situation, not fully but at least partially being
involved in material goods provided by the peace.

But there is some likelihood of war even when one of the superpowers
wants it without coming to agreement with the other one. At least,
both the U.S. and Russia are able to resort to military provocations.

Will they do that step? The provocation of one of them will meet the
resistance of the other one if there is no mutual agreement. And this
means that one will be left without anything like it happened in case
of the Georgian-Russian war. Russia rushed to Tbilisi but in the end
it stopped understanding that by war, it took only what it had, and
what it did not have, it lost forever. Perhaps, right this perception
made the Russian current president undertake the strategy of taking
Georgia with peace.

In other words, unilateral provocation is possible but the side which
makes it, has to be sure that it is able to solve that issue. But if
any of the sides has such an opportunity to solve any issue, it can
use that possibility in the negotiation process.

Of course, with all this, it is not ruled out that we will deal with
just a prophylactic war which can clear all the unnecessary things
gathered in the conflict which may be expedient for everyone. From
this point, the sides are good to get prepared for a war. After all,
especially in the Caucasus, it is the only effective means to secure
peace for now, as justly noted Nzhdeh.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress