TURKEY FACING A CHOICE OR A STALEMATE?
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
/PanARMENIAN.Net/
02.02.2010 GMT+04:00
Currently Ankara does not look back at the USA and may at any moment
cease to be its true strategic ally, especially since there is almost
a replacement in the form of Russia.
Normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations, as well as settlement
of the Karabakh conflict reached a deadlock, and important role
in this process played Azerbaijan, zigzagging from Turkey to Iran
and backwards. Lack of national identity influenced the position of
Caucasian Tatars in the region: on the one hand they are Shiahs and
they must have a propensity for Iran, on the other hand they call
themselves Turks, thus giving preference to Turkey.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The most interesting thing is that neither of the
countries takes Baku seriously and they need her only as a means to
strengthen their role of a regional power. By the way, this role is
differently perceived by Tehran and Ankara: Turkey has dressed up in
the clothes of a peacemaker, trying to reconcile the irreconcilable
in words, while Iran is conducting a tougher policy. It is clearly
expressed in the desire of the countries to participate in the Karabakh
conflict settlement. Turkey’s position is dependent on Azerbaijan,
while Iran is more independent in this issue. But is Ankara really
dependent on Baku? It is one thing to issue dramatic statements
to one’s audience, and another – the real intentions of Erdogan’s
government, for which ratification of the Armenian-Turkish Protocols is
more important than settlement of the conflict it is no relation with.
However, it should be noted that declarations of Official Ankara on
ratification of Protocols are once again motivated by strange reasons.
What was the cost of the Turkish Foreign Ministry’s demarche over
the verdict of the Armenian Constitutional Court, incomprehensible
for the world powers actively involved in the preparation and signing
of the Protocols in Zurich? According to the Turkish daily Milliyet,
following the statement by Turkish Foreign Ministry, Ankara seemed
to be feeling diplomatically strong. "However, statements of Western
diplomats proved that it is not so. None of the interested parties
recognize the link between the Zurich protocols and the Karabakh
issue. It was quite toughly and clearly told by Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov. The interested parties also agree with US
Assistant Secretary of State Philip Gordon, who assessed the RA
Constitutional Court’s decision as positive".
And what can Prime Minister Erdogan do? Only accuse Armenia of breaking
down the talks. This is not a new policy for Turkey; it has a history
of more than 200 years and is periodically applied with smaller or
greater success. But everything has an end, no matter how reluctant
Ankara is to presently notice it, hoping that international community
may once again go under Turkey’s thumb. There is a grain of truth in
this confidence, though there has been no precedent for this yet.
Currently Ankara does not look back at the USA and may at any moment
cease to be its true strategic ally, especially since there is almost
a replacement in the form of Russia. The question is whether Moscow
would like to play the very reprehensible role of advancing Turkey’s
interests in the region, especially taking into consideration the fact
that the Great Turan will be passing precisely through the territory
of Russia. Perhaps this is the reason why the U.S. is so active in
ratification of the Protocols. However, both Moscow and Washington
are well aware that Yerevan will take up no action until Ankara
ratifies the Protocols. Roughly speaking, no pressure is exerted
on Armenia yet, giving her an opportunity to sit and wait. By and
large there is almost no leverage to use against Armenia: surrender
of any territory or renunciation of international recognition of the
Armenian Genocide is out of the question. And the U.S. can once again
threaten to finally recognize the Armenian Genocide committed in the
Ottoman Empire, especially since there is an excellent occasion –
the 95th anniversary. In such cases no moral considerations are taken
into account: in politics there is no room for sentimentality. And
if the U.S. recognizes this fact, the chain reaction will go through
the world, and it would be difficult for Turkey to object to anything
both morally and materially. The fact that Armenia says she requires
no compensation, changes nothing in international laws: the country
responsible for genocide must pay compensation to the victims and
their descendants. In any case, we must acknowledge that Turkey
is playing with fire that could any moment burn down the State,
so painstakingly built by Ataturk.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
