PROTOCOLS’ FAILURE TO DAMAGE US-TURKISH TIES, SAYS ANALYST

Asbarez
Feb 4th, 2010

David Phillips, a U.S. scholar who chaired the former Turkish-Armenian
Reconciliation Commission, presents the Armenian translation of his
book in Yerevan. YEREVAN (RFE/RL)-If the Turkish Armenian Protocols
fall apart, it will have a "serious adverse effect on US-Turkish
relations," according to a renowned U.S. scholar who was actively
involved in the Turkish-Armenian Reconciliation Commission (TARC).

In an interview with RFE/RL on Thursday, David Phillips stressed that
the administration of President Barack Obama understands that stronger
U.S. pressure on turkey is essential for salvaging the fence-mending
agreements between Armenia and Turkey.

Phillips also criticized Ankara’s linkage between the implementation
of those agreements and a Nagorno-Karabakh settlement. He dismissed
Turkish claims that a recent ruling by the Armenian Constitutional
Court ran counter to key provisions of the Turkish-Armenian "protocols"
signed in October.

Phillips, who coordinated the work of the U.S.-sponsored TARC in
2001-2004, further said that Armenia should not rush to walk away
from the deal. But he stressed that its ratification by the Turkish
parliament cannot be "an open-ended process."

"If these protocols fall apart and there is a diplomatic train wreck,
it will have a serious adverse effect on U.S.-Turkish relations,"
he said. "And this comes at a time when the U.S. is seeking Turkey’s
cooperation on Iran, when Turkey is playing an increasingly important
role in Afghanistan and during the wrap-up to redeployment from Iraq.

"The Obama administration knows full well that these protocols should
go forward because it is in the interests of Turkey and Armenia. It
is also in America’s interests to keep the process moving forward so
that U.S.-Turkish cooperation is in effect."

Analysts believe Washington will step up pressure on Ankara ahead of
the April 24 annual commemoration of the Armenian Genocide. Obama
avoided properly characterizing the annihilation of 1.5 million
Armenians as Genocide in his April 24 statement in 2009, implicitly
citing the need not to undermine the ongoing Turkish-Armenian
rapprochement.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg discussed the issue
with President Serzh Sarkisian and Foreign Minisiter Edward Nalbandian
during a one-day visit to Yerevan on Thursday.

Phillips, who currently runs a conflict resolution program at the
American University in Washington, declined to speculate on just how
strong that pressure will be. "But I do believe that unless the Obama
administration presses the Turks at the highest level, the likelihood
of the protocols being ratified in Ankara will decrease," he said.

Phillips described Steinberg’s visit as a "a clear indication that the
Obama administration understands the importance of this matter and the
need to raise the profile of its involvement." "And its efforts to use
its leverage should intensify in the near future," he said. "The U.S.

needs to be actively engaged in this process if it is going to work."

U.S. officials have already made clear that they disagree with Ankara’s
highly negative reaction to the Armenian court ruling. While upholding
the legality of the protocols, the Constitutional Court ruled last
month that they cannot stop Yerevan seeking a broader international
recognition of the Armenian genocide.

Turkish leaders claim that the court thereby prejudged the findings
of a Turkish-Armenian "subcommission" of history experts which the two
governments have agreed to set up. The Armenian side insists, however,
that the panel would not be tasked with examining the history of the
Genocide. It says the Turks are deliberately exploiting the ruling
to justify their reluctance to ratify the protocols.

"There is nothing in the [relevant protocol] annex that says that the
subcommission is going to be considering the veracity of the Armenian
genocide," agreed Phillips. "If those questions are being raised,
they are being raised as a way of deflecting the focus of discussions
and creating conditions whereby Armenia is blamed for any breakdown
of the process."

"If the Turks ever thought that signing the protocols would bring an
end to international recognition efforts, they were wrong," he said.

"They should have known that from the beginning and I’m quite sure
that they do know that."

Commenting on Turkish leaders’ repeated statements making protocol
ratification conditional on the signing of a Karabakh agreement
acceptable to Azerbaijan, Phillips said, "The protocols are very
clear. There is no mention in the protocols themselves or in any of
the annexes about Nagorno-Karabakh."

President Serzh Sarkisian has publicly threatened to annul the
agreements unless Ankara drops the Karabakh linkage "within a
reasonable time frame." Some of his aides have spoken of late March
as an unofficial deadline for their unconditional implementation.

In Phillips’s view, walking away from the deal at this juncture would
be a "mistake." But he acknowledged that the Armenian government
cannot wait for Turkish ratification for much longer.

"I know that for domestic political reasons, this can’t be an
open-ended process, and April 24, as the anniversary of the Armenian
genocide, has been put forward as a deadline," he said. "Whether or
not April 24 is a deadline is something for the Armenian government
to decide. But there clearly needs to be an end point."

In the meantime, suggested Phillips, Sarkisian should formally submit
the protocols to Armenia’s parliament "without necessarily calling for
a vote." "Then the onus of responsibility for a potential diplomatic
breakdown would rest with Ankara," he reasoned.

Phillips spoke to RFE/RL in Yerevan where he arrived earlier on
Thursday to present the newly published Armenian translation of his
2005 book, "Unsilencing the Past," that gives a detailed account
of TARC’s largely confidential activities. The panel of Turkish and
Armenian retired diplomats and prominent public figures was set up
in 2001 at the U.S. State Department’s initiative and with the tacit
approval of the authorities in Ankara and Yerevan.

TARC repeatedly called for the unconditional establishment
of diplomatic relations between the two states and opening of
their border before being disbanded in 2004. It is also infamous
for commissioning a study on the Genocide from the New York-based
International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ). In a report
released in February 2003, ICTJ concluded that the Armenian Genocide
"include all of the elements of the crime of genocide" as defined by
a 1948 United Nations convention.

But the report also said, to the dismay of Armenia and its worldwide
Diaspora, that the Armenians cannot use the convention for demanding
material or other compensation from Turkey. Former U.S. President
George W. Bush repeatedly cited the ICTJ study in his April 24
statements.

Phillips hailed the study as a potential blueprint for Turkish-Armenian
reconciliation. "The full benefit of that finding has yet to be fully
understood and materialized," he said.

Phillips also credited TARC with laying the groundwork for the
unprecedented thaw in Turkish-Armenian relations that began shortly
after Sarkisian took office in April 2008. "The rapprochement that’s
underway today would never have occurred in this time frame if TARC
hadn’t existed," he said. "All of TARC’s recommendations are now
being put into effect."