RESULTS AND PROSPECTS IN THE POST-SOVIET SPACE
by Alexei Matveev

WPS Agency
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
January 25, 2010 Monday
Russia

PROBABILITY OF WARS AND CONFLICTS IN SOME REGIONS OF THE CIS WILL GROW
IN 2010; Year 2009 did not add any radical changes to development
of the CIS. The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is getting
narrower both from the standpoint of territory and from the standpoint
of its ability to work. Withdrawal of many former Soviet republics
from the CIS in 2009 and non-participation of their leaders in the CIS
summits demonstrate that the CIS is losing the interest of majority
of political elites of the post-Soviet countries. Along with this,
military and military political relations remain among the former
Soviet republics and work informally. In some regions they have an
obvious confrontation nature.

Year 2009 did not add any radical changes to development of the CIS.

The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is getting narrower
both from the standpoint of territory and from the standpoint of its
ability to work. Withdrawal of many former Soviet republics from
the CIS in 2009 and non-participation of their leaders in the CIS
summits demonstrate that the CIS is losing the interest of majority
of political elites of the post-Soviet countries.

Along with this, military and military political relations remain among
the former Soviet republics and work informally. In some regions they
have an obvious confrontation nature.

Nature of military relations

Disintegration processes kept working in the military field in 2009.

The role of the collective military interaction bodies was decreasing
in the framework of the CIS too. If we analyze efficiency of meetings
of the council of defense ministers of the CIS in 2009, we will see
that, unfortunately, they have not made any important and big-scale
decision. In any case, despite certain difficulties and contradictions,
the united air defense system keeps working in the framework of
the council of defense ministers of the CIS. Along with this, it is
necessary to confess that it is working in a reduced composition and
is represented mostly by member states of the Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CSTO).

Further polarization of countries according to group military political
interests took place in 2009. After a certain weakening and decrease
contradictions between the two polar organizations, CSTO and GUAM,
appeared in the post-Soviet space again. Anti-Russian forces grew
more actively in Ukraine in Georgia with informal support of the West
and the US after the war of Georgia against South Ossetia. After the
victory of the so-called democratic alliance in Moldova GUAM pursues
uniting military goals again. Under the flag of integration into the
European structures and NATO political leaders of GUAM plan military
measures that may lead to military conflicts in Transcaucasia and
Trans-Dniester Republic again.

Second, contradictions in the military political blocs grew bigger in
2009. In GUAM they were manifested in the member states. In Ukraine
and Moldova they were connected with the election struggle. In Georgia
these were revenge plans towards South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In 2009,
authorities of Azerbaijan hinted frequently that military operations
were possible in case of drawing out of the negotiations.

Internal contradictions of the CSTO were manifested openly in 2009
during discussion of establishment of collective rapid-response forces
in the framework of this organization. Uzbekistan that did not support
opening of new military bases of Russia on the territory of Kyrgyzstan
spoke against this idea.

External influence

Growth of external influence is conditioned by the new strategy
in Afghanistan prepared by US President Barack Obama. This dealt
practically with all post-Soviet countries. Like Russia they permitted
transit of cargoes for needs of NATO operating in Afghanistan through
their territories. Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan accommodated
bases and objects of NATO countries and the US on their territories.

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Ukraine sent their military
contingents to Afghanistan.

With regard to China it is possible to say that its military and
economic expansion in the post-Soviet space is only starting. So far,
the Russian military political authorities do not see this as a threat
and view China as an ally and partner. However, facts show that China
is developing its military technological relations with Uzbekistan,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan actively. Taking this process
without due attention Moscow will understand its strategic mistakes
soon but geopolitical domination of China may be possible in Central
Asia by that time.

Nature of military threats

Sluggish interstate conflicts for disputed territories in
Nagorno-Karabakh and Trans-Dniester Republic remained in 2009. There
was a possibility of a new aggression of Georgia in South Ossetia
and Abkhazia. There was certain growth of separatist attitude and
trends in Crimea (Ukraine) and in Central Asian countries: Kyrgyzstan,
Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and especially in the Fergana Valley.

Armed conflicts are possible in the zone of hydrocarbon fields in the
Caspian Sea between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, as well as between
Azerbaijan and Iran. Conflicts in Transcaucasia are very likely too:
in Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. If the power of the
democratic coalition remains in Moldova situation in Trans-Dniester
Republic may grow worse too.

In these conditions Russia will have to work out a correct clear
policy to prevent development of these trends. It would be expedient
for authorities of the country to initiate economic and military
political measures for strengthening of the CIS. Moscow should take
effort to form collective peacekeeping forces under the CIS aegis and
to organize military technological cooperation with all CIS countries
on more beneficial terms. Russia needs to make significant concessions
to Minsk to complete establishment of the union state and to involve
new member states of the CSTO into this union.

Source: Voenno-Promyshlenny Kuryer, No. 2, January 20-26, 2010, p. 3

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress