THE ISSUE OF FIVE DISTRICTS GETTING MORE SERIOUS ON THE EVE OF PRESIDENTS’ MEETING
by Sahil Quliyev

Baki Xabar
Jan 24 2010
Azerbaijan

The number of experts supporting this position increase in Moscow

Russia has become a place where the Karabakh peace process has been
frequently discussed over the recent period. Turkish Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently discussed the Karabakh conflict with
the Russian leadership in Moscow. After that, the Russian and Armenian
presidents held a meeting outside Moscow.

Russian officials frequently visit the region. Russian Foreign Minister
Sergey Lavrov was in Yerevan last week. After that, the OSCE Minsk
Group co-chairs, including the Russian co-chairman, started visiting
the region. According to various reports, another meeting between
the presidents of Azerbaijan, Russia and Armenia will take place in
Sochi on 25 January.

Now the main issue that interests political analysts is Russia’s fresh
activities and the intensification of the Karabakh talks in general.

This issue has turned into one of the main subjects of the discussion
in Russia too. Commenting on the path leading to the current activity,
the Russian political analyst Vladimir Yevseyev said: "I think that
the new round of talks is being discussed at the meetings. Prior to
these activities, we saw that the process was, in fact, suspended.

This process covers both the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement and
the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict settlement. Against this background,
Azerbaijan started making new belligerent statements. I think these
statements are the last straw that led to the current activity, i.e.

the problem should be dealt with now, not in spring. All these issues
are so complicated that there is a need for a mediator. And Russia,
which enjoys good relations with Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey,
took the leading role in this issue".

[Passage omitted: another Russian expert Aleksey Vlasov told the BBC
that he thinks an agreement on Armenia’s withdrawal from five occupied
districts of Azerbaijan is possible]

Some experts believe that Russia, which has established closer
relations with Turkey, is able to force Armenia to withdraw from
several districts. If they withdraw from the districts, it will be
easy for Turkey to open its border with Armenia from political point
of view. But a political analyst from the Moscow-based Institute for
International Relations and International Economy, Anatoliy Pikayev,
believes that it is too early to expect real progress in the Karabakh
conflict settlement. "Russia is not against the opening of the border
between Turkey and Armenia and even is interested in this issue. But
Russia would not like this to happen at any costs."

"Thus, Moscow understands very well that Armenia is not ready to
make serious compromises in exchange for this. Russia will not put
serious pressure on Armenia. Expert on the Caucasus Aleksandr Krilov
believes that one of the main points of diplomatic activities is
that the regional countries are trying to find out Russia’s position
on this issue. The expert said that the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs
are going to offer an edited version of the Madrid principles to the
conflicting sides and it is important for the sides to the conflict
to learn Russia’s position in this regard.

[Passage omitted: A trilateral meeting between the presidents of
Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia will take place in Russia’s Sochi on
25 January]