UNRESOLVED STATUS OF KARABAKH CONFLICT – HARD BURDEN FOR INTRAREGIONAL RELATIONS
Leyla Tagiyeva

news.az
Feb 5 2010
Azerbaijan

Uwe Halbach News.Az interviews Dr. Uwe Halbach, researcher of German
Institute for International Affairs and Security in Berlin.

President of Azerbaijan is in Germany now. How do you estimate the
relations between the two countries?

Within the last five years relations between Azerbaijan and EU
as well as the bilateral relations with Germany have become more
intensive as before – due to Azerbaijan’s rapid economic growth and an
increased European and German interest in the diversification of energy
supply and attention for a Southern Transport Corridor with the South
Caucasus as its key region. Though Germany is not the main investor in
Azerbaijan, some 45 German enterprises are active in Baku. There are
special historical relations between both countries going back to the
beginning of 19th century with German settlers in Azerbaijan. This
history which was known only to a small community of experts in
Germany is now becoming more prominent in the German public. In 2008
the cultural, political and economic bilateral relations were presented
in a "year of Azerbaijan" in Germany. Thus, knowledge about Azerbaijan,
until recently a rather unknown partner for Germany, is growing.

President Aliyev during his visit going to participate in the Munich
conference on security issues. What kind of role can play Germany
and EU in stabilization situation in the Sought Caucasus?

Stabilization of the South Caucasus has mainly to do with working
on unresolved conflicts from Abkhazia to Nagorno-Karabakh. On
this field of action Germany is more part of the EU as an actor
on its own. Until recently EU’s role in conflict managing in the
South Caucasus was limited. It was more a "working around conflict"
with some rehabilitation projects in conflict damaged regions like
South Ossetia than a "working on conflict" by active mediation or
peacekeeping. EU’s main argument for this reserved position was that
other international actors like OSCE and UN were engaged in conflict
mediation in this region since many years. The "August war" in Georgia
2008 was a certain turning point in this regard. EU became the main
mediator of the ceasefire agreements between Russia and Georgia and
sent a monitoring mission to Georgia (EUMM). Thus, EU become more
engaged in "working on conflict" as before.

Why the EU is so passive in the settlement of Karabagh conflict,
despite of huge economic interests of Europe in Azerbaijan?

Among all unresolved conflicts in its Eastern Neighborhood EU is,
indeed, least engaged in the conflict on Nagorno-Karabakh though this
conflict is perceived as the historical key conflict in the South
Caucasus and its unresolved status is a hard burden for intraregional
relations. Again Brussels main argument was that other international
actors are engaged in conflict resolution, in this case the co-chairs
of the Minsk OSCE-group United States, Russia and France. Especially
Russia has become very active in "peace diplomacy" in this conflict
after the August war 2008.

Do you think that efforts of Russia and Turkey to stabilize relations
between Azerbaijan and Armenia will be successful?

I think that Russia is seriously interested in a stabilization of
the relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia as it is looking for
increased economic and political relations with both sides. With regard
to Turkey’s role in the region I see that at first the unresolved
Karabakh-conflict is blocking the Turkish-Armenian rapproachement
process and the ratification of the Zurich protocols.

It makes out of the bilateral diplomatic process between Ankara
and Yerevan a tricky trilateral relationship with Azerbaijan being
strongly against the opening of Turkey’s border with Armenia without
a preceeding withdrawal of Armenian troops from its own territory.

Is there a threat of new war for Karabakh and what it will be for
Europe ant its interests in the region?

A new war on Karabakh would be against the interests of all sides. If
all sides are acting rationally the threat of a new war should be
minimal. For Azerbaijan the military variant of conflict resolution, as
mentioned by President Aliyev before the meeting in Munich in November
2009, would be the end of its "energy honeymoon" and its prosperous
development of international relations. For Europe it would be a
lasting and heavy interruption of its Southern Transport Corridor,
which is just in the making, for Russia it would be a challenge of
its security relationship with Armenia.

Dr. Uwe Halbach, is researcher for the Russian Federation/CIS
department of the German Institute for International Affairs and
Security in Berlin.