Improved U.S.-Turkish Relations Are Vital To Better Security In The

IMPROVED U.S.-TURKISH RELATIONS ARE VITAL TO BETTER SECURITY IN THE PERSIAN GULF AND MIDDLE EAST

Targeted News Service
February 3, 2010 Wednesday 3:07 AM EST
Washington

The RAND Corporation issued the following news release:

The United States can take a major step in improving the security
environment in the Middle East and Persian Gulf by giving new impetus
to revitalizing its security partnership with Turkey, according to
a RAND Corporation study issued today.

The study finds that Turkey plays a critical role in four areas of
increasing strategic importance to the United States: the Middle East,
the Persian Gulf, Europe, and the Caucasus and Central Asia region.

Turkey’s cooperation in each area is needed to achieve U.S. policy
goals.

As a result, revitalizing the U.S.-Turkish security partnership
should be a top U.S. foreign policy goal, said study author F. Stephen
Larrabee, who holds the Distinguished Chair in European Security at
RAND, a nonprofit research organization.

The study notes that Turkish foreign policy has undergone an important
evolution since the end of the Cold War, as the end of the Soviet
threat reduced Turkey’s dependence on the United States. It also
opened new opportunities in areas that previously had been neglected
or were off-limits to Turkish policy, particularly the Middle East
and the Caucasus/Central Asia.

Turkish leaders have sought to make use of this diplomatic flexibility
and room for maneuverability by establishing new relationships in these
areas. This has resulted in a gradual broadening and diversification
of Turkish foreign policy, Larrabee says.

The broadening of Turkish foreign policy has been accompanied by
important domestic changes that challenge many of the basic tenets of
the Kemalist revolution on which the Turkish Republic was founded,
particularly secularism. Kemalism remains an important social and
political force in Turkey. However, the democratization of Turkish
political life in the last several decades has led to the emergence
of new political and social elites that have increasingly challenged
the Kemalist elite’s traditional dominance of Turkish political life.

These changes have made the security partnership with Turkey more
difficult to manage, according to the report. Turkey today has
interests in a number of regions–particularly the Middle East and
Caucasus–that it did not have two decades ago. As a result, Turkey’s
government is less willing to automatically follow the United States’
lead on many issues, especially when U.S. policy conflicts with
Turkey’s own interests. At the same time, Turkey has increased its
regional influence.

President Obama’s trip to Turkey in April 2009 was an important first
step toward improving U.S.-Turkey relations. However, Larrabee says,
if the effort to revitalize the relationship is to succeed, the visit
needs to be followed up by concrete actions in a number of areas. In
particular, the study recommends that the United States should take
several steps, including:

* Increase political and intelligence support for Turkey’s struggle
against terrorism from the Kurdistan Workers Party. Many Turkish
officials consider this as the litmus test of the value of the
U.S.-Turkish security partnership.

* Put greater pressure on the Kurdistan Regional Government to
crack down on the Kurdistan Workers Party and end its logistical and
political support of the group.

* Encourage Turkey to carry out social, economic and legal changes
so Kurds in Turkey enjoy the same rights and benefits as ethnic Turks.

The Kurdish terrorist threat will not be resolved by military means,
but by a strong anti-terrorist program combined with social and
economic reforms that address the root causes of Kurdish grievances.

* Express readiness to engage Iran and Syria in diplomatic efforts
to help stabilize Iraq as U.S. forces are drawn down there. While
such diplomacy would not improve U.S. relations with Iran and Syria
overnight, it would more closely align U.S.-Turkish policy and reduce
a past source of friction between the two nations.

* Encourage and support Turkey’s recent efforts to promote an
improvement in relations with Armenia, particularly the opening of
the border between the two. The normalization of relations between
these two countries would significantly contribute to enhancing peace
and stability in the Caucasus. It would also enable Armenia to reduce
its economic and political dependence on Russia and Iran.

* Intensify efforts to persuade Iran to abandon any attempt to acquire
nuclear weapons. A nuclear Iran will destabilize the entire Persian
Gulf region and potentially spark a nuclear arms race in the Gulf
and Middle East, directly threatening Turkey’s security.

The study also recommends that the United States continue to support
Turkey’s membership in the European Union, and improve defense
cooperation by initiating discussions with about Turkish leaders
about the future use of military bases in Turkey, particularly the
Air Force base at Incirlik.

The study, "Troubled Partnership: U.S.-Turkish Relations in the Era
of Global Geopolitical Change," can be found at It
was prepared by RAND Project AIR FORCE, a federally funded research
and development center for studies and analysis aimed at providing
independent policy alternatives for the U.S. Air Force.