NAGORNO-KARABAKH FORMULA OF WAR AND PEACE

WPS Agency
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
February 8, 2010 Monday
Russia

HIGHLIGHT: AMBASSADOR OF AZERBAIJAN IN RUSSIA CALLED ON DIASPORA TO
GET READY FOR AN ARMED RESOLVING OF THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT;
Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed to stick to the old principles of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolving. However, they did not achieve
a breakthrough at the negotiations.

Negotiations of the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia Ilham Aliyev
and Serzh Sargsian are evaluated positively on the official Russian
level. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that agreement
of the parties to draw their formulations of old principles of the
conflict resolving in writing was the main result of the negotiations.

Along with this, it is clear to everyone that there has been no
breakthrough.

The public and the politicians of Armenia, Azerbaijan and
Nagorno-Karabakh actively criticize the contact of Medvedev, Aliyev
and Sargsian of the last week.

Baku considers the status of Nagorno-Karabakh under condition of
preserving of the main principle of "indivisibility of its territory."

Yerevan and Stepanakert do not agree with such stance and see the
future of Nagorno-Karabakh outside of Azerbaijan.

Reconciliation of Baku and Yerevan on the basis of "Madrid principles"
means that the conflict between the parties is over. However, there is
no agreement yet. Already after the meeting in Sochi Defense Minister
of Armenia Seiran Oganian said that "self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh
cannot return to Azerbaijan." Along with this, Oganian announced
proudly that "today the Armenian army is one of the most combat
capable in the region" and is ready to parry any aggression. There
is no need to guess whose aggression Oganian is going to parry. It
is aggression of Azerbaijan.

Really, facts show that leader of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev agrees with
persuasion of Moscow and Washington to have peaceful dialog dedicated
to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem but hints at a possible military
scenario of the conflict resolving more actively. On the eve of the
meeting in Sochi he announced that "the army of Azerbaijan has all
possibilities to liberate the occupied territories." Aliyev does not
hide achievements in the military development of Azerbaijan.

Preparation for a possible military Azerbaijani blitzkrieg against
Armenia is manifested by the statement of Ambassador of Azerbaijan
to Russia Polad Byul-Byul Ogly. He stated frankly that "The time of
resolving of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has already come." Having
reminded that the largest Azerbaijani Diaspora is in Russia, he pointed
out, "If someone thinks that the can stay home while the army takes
the occupied territories back, this will not happen. The whole nation
should rise, get united and liberate the territories."

What will happen if a new Armenian-Azerbaijani war begins? Despite the
growing might of Azerbaijan, its army leaves much to be desired still.

If the war starts this year the chances of Azerbaijani forces to take
Nagorno-Karabakh will not be big. Russia and the US will have negative
reaction to beginning of hostilities on the part of Baku. Armenia
will definitely receive moral and diplomatic air and possibility
a military one. Moscow and Washington will try to "neutralize"
Turkey immediately, although it will evidently provide military
aid to Azerbaijan anyway. There is a probability of insertion of UN
peacekeepers or NATO forces into the region. This is extremely not
beneficial for Russia. To outrun the process peacekeeping forces of
collective raid-response forces will be inserted into the conflict zone
under the Collective Security Treaty Organization flag. The military
conflict will possibly paralyze transportation of Caspian hydrocarbons
to Turkey and towards the Black Sea. That is why activeness of the US
in resoling or localization of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will be
the biggest. Russian authorities should bear this into account too
to defend their geopolitical interests in the South Caucasus.