AZERBAIJANI POLITICAL EXPERT: U.S. MAY BE INTERESTED IN "BLITZKRIEG" IN KARABAKH
Z. Ahmadov

Today
1199.html
Feb 9 2010
Azerbaijan

Day.Az interview with Azerbaijani political expert Rasim Agayev.

In your opinion, how great is the possibility of resumed military
action in Nagorno-Karabakh?

I do not see a situation that could prompt the parties to resolve
the territorial dispute by force. Such a solution to the conflict
is not favorable for Armenia, because it has occupied 20 percent of
Azerbaijan’s territory.

As for Azerbaijan, I think that Azerbaijan will not start the war.

Although Azerbaijan makes such statements from time to time, I
think that they are aimed mostly at the powers whom Azerbaijan calls
for stronger action to resolve the Karabakh conflict. I think that
the recent statement by U.S. National Intelligence was associated
with this.

I believe external forces may be interested in a war in
Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia does not need it at the moment, because it has
somewhat damaged its credibility after the war with Georgia, but on the
other hand, it already has high influence in our region. The EU does
not want war, too, because it does not support a military solution.

As to the United States, it has advanced the idea of creating a
"Greater Middle East" from Baghdad to Karachi. Theoretically, it
may be interested in a "blitzkrieg" in Karabakh. South Caucasus and
the Caspian Sea basin play a very important role in U.S. plans of
"Greater Middle East", and the U.S. may be interested in violation
of the existing status quo in the Caucasus.

In this case, Armenia is out of the game, because important energy
flows bypass this country. Azerbaijan, in turn, is in such an important
geopolitical position that not only fate of the South Caucasus, but
also Central Asia depends on it. The United States knows very well
that the power which will control energy flows from East to West will
rule the modern world. That is why, on the one hand, Azerbaijan’s
significance is great, but on the other hand, in some circumstances
the U.S. might be interested in some "blitzkrieg" in Karabakh.

Another reason for escalation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can
be external destabilizing facts in neighboring countries such as Iran.

This could potentially lead to the most unexpected consequences in
our region.

In your opinion, what does the appointment of Karabakh separatist
Oleg Yesayan as new Armenian ambassador to Russia mean given the
fact the Armenian and Azerbaijani embassies in Moscow have developed
some contacts?

Oleg Yesayan is one of the hardcore and rabid secessionists.

Therefore, his appointment to the post of Armenian Ambassador to Moscow
demonstrates Yerevan’s loyalty to separatism, aggression towards the
Azerbaijani lands. Yesayan is one of those who made its choice in
favor of separatism in the late 1980’s waiting for the right moment
the Soviet Union disintegrates.

Aggressive and rectilinear people are rarely able to exercise an
ambassadorial diplomacy. Actions of the embassies are coordinated
from Yerevan, therefore, fate of any further contacts of diplomatic
representatives of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Moscow will be decided
there. Time will tell how Yesayan will replace Smbatian who had
displayed diplomatic flexibility..

In your views, may Turkey resume diplomatic ties with Armenia without
opening of the Armenia-Turkey border?

Such scenario is not ruled out given the outside pressure. This
is another step in a phased implementation of the Armenia-Turkey
protocols. In fact, Armenia-Turkey borders cannot be consider closed
since there is brisk trade between the two countries. There is no
need to accept the Armenia-Turkey protocols right away. Establishing
diplomatic ties between the countries will be some kind of interim
resolution of the issue.

Is the U.S. Congress likely to recognize the "Armenian genocide"
before April this year?

I do not tend to exaggerate influence of Armenian diaspora on the U.S.

and Congress’ adherence to principle in this respect. This is leverage
that Washington needs to put pressure on Turkey in many issues.

Lately, Turkey has become some sort of secular and democratic leader
of the Muslim world. Given the complex situation around the Iran’s
nuclear program and U.S. problems with the Muslim world, I believe
recognition of the "Armenian genocide" will be a good solution.