THE CAUCASUS A THREAT TO THE EU
The Messenger
Feb 9 2010
Georgia
A storm has followed the statement made on February 3 by US National
Intelligence Director Dennis Blair that Bosnia and the South Caucasus
pose a potential threat to the stability of the EU. Blair suggested
that there could be bloodshed in the South Caucasus due to the frozen
conflicts between Georgia and Russia and Armenia and Azerbaijan.
This statement was probably meant as a serious warning to Europe, which
is trying its best to turn a blind eye on Russia’s neo-imperialistic
actions and ambitions. However the USA is doing the same thing, being
so fixated by its ‘reset policy’ with Russia that it does not notice
Russia’s arrogant attempts to build its military capacity by adopting
an aggressive military doctrine which ‘legalises’ Moscow’s attempts to
use military force outside its territory and other efforts to regain
superpower status. It is therefore significant that the Head of US
Intelligence is openly stating the threats coming from Russia which
undermine global security and Europe’s in particular.
Georgian analysts suggest that the explosive situation in the South
Caucasus is mainly the result of Russia’s aggression and political
trickery. Moscow does not want any conflict in the South Caucasus
to be resolved peacefully, and wants conflicts to exist there to
deprive the area of any economic attractiveness and undermine its
capacity to act as an East-West transport corridor. Conflicts are
also obstacles to NATO expanding. As analyst Irakli Sesiashvili says,
under the current circumstances the Caucasus is lost for Europe.
The threat that at any moment Russia can unfreeze its aggression
against Georgia is a real one. Any provocation could lead to such
developments. There are plenty of weapons on the ground and there is
little control over what is going on around the occupied territories.
It only needs a small spark to create a big explosion. The separatist
South Ossetian leaders, encouraged by Russia, continually advance new
and absolutely unfounded territorial claims, so anything could happen.
The same instability can be observed in the frozen Armenia and
Azerbaijan conflict over Karabakh. Surprisingly, or maybe not, this
situation has been aggravated since the Armenian-Turkish negotiations
on opening the borders between the two countries began. Armenia
thought that the borders could be opened without reference to the
Karabakh conflict, although Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan in this
is the reason it was closed in the first place. Turkey also seems
to have rather surprisingly believed that it could establish good
neighbourly relations with Armenia while ignoring the interests of
its brotherly nation Azerbaijan. In reality however the Azeris are
furious that Ankara intends to establish friendship with Yerevan
without addressing the Karabakh issue.
Recently relations between Ankara and Baku have become almost
strained. Azeri political analyst Mubariz Ahmadoglu thinks that the
Karabakh conflict could become a military confrontation once again if
the forthcoming February-March round of negotiations on Karabakh brings
no results. Armenian journalist Murat Petrosian suggests that Moscow
is not interested in resolving the conflict and wants to maintain
the present tension so that everyone starts to think that resolution
of the conflict depends on Moscow. Russia is using this tactic not
only in Karabakh but also Transdniestria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia,
thinks Petrosian.
The situation in the South Caucasus can change very quickly but is
on a knife edge. There is always the threat of things getting beyond
anyone’s control. It is impossible to guarantee stability while Russia
dominates the area. The only solution is for the West to adopt and
implement a much wiser, balanced but straightforward policy towards
the region.