PRIVATE TRANSFERS WILL INCREASE RATHER SLOWLY IN ARMENIA IN 2010 AND WILL NOT PROMOTE INTERNAL DEMAND

ArmInfo
2010-02-10 11:55:00

ArmInfo. Private transfers will increase rather slowly in Armenia
in 2010 and will not promote internal demand, said IMF experts when
presenting the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) in Yerevan. Mark Louis,
Head of the IMF Mission to Armenia, attended the presentation.

Transfers stopped falling in late 2009. However, high dependence
of population incomes on transfers may hinder internal consumption
growth. IMF surveys in Armenia showed that a 10% decline of transfers
leads to 2- 4% reduction of demand, whereas such correlations is
significant enough, the expert say.

Generally the IMF experts expect external imbalance of energy
importers in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, including in
Armenia, Georgia. Tajikistan and Kyrghyzstan. Exports growth of these
countries will fully depend on regional demand for their goods, the
expert said. They predict higher economic growth to fuel exporters,
Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The IMF like the government
of Armenia predicts 1.2% economic growth in Armenia. Mark Luois said
devaluation of the Armenian dram against the US dollar may have
certain retrospective effect on the economy of Armenia and raise
prices of consumer goods.

The latest IMF World Economic Outlook Update released in January 2010
predicts 3.8% economic growth through out the CIS in 2010 (exclusive
of Russia – 4.3%).