TURKEY AND ARMENIA – ON THE BRINK OF COLLAPSE
By David L. Phillips

Boston Globe
Feb 11 2010
MA

THE PROTOCOLS on normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia
were heralded as an historic breakthrough when they were announced
last April, but the deal is now on the brink of collapse unless the
parliaments of Turkey and Armenia ratify the agreement. A breakdown
would spike tensions between Turkey and Armenia. It would also set back
mediation to resolve the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan
where ethnic Azeris and Armenians fought a bloody war in 1992-94.

Negotiators finalized the protocols in February and initialed their
annexes on April 2. In a procedural breakthrough, the implementation
roadmap de-linked normalization between Turkey and Armenia to
negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh.

In response, Turkey’s Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan suffered withering
criticism from Turkey’s large Azeri minority. Azerbaijan’s President
Ilham Aliyev also threatened to boycott the Nabucco pipeline, which
is designed to carry natural gas from Central Asia via Turkey to
markets in Europe. Within a month, Erdogan was in Baku, the capital
of Azerbaijan, assuring his "Azeri brothers" that Turkey "could open
its border only if Armenia lifts its occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh."

It took months, but a signing ceremony was finally scheduled for Oct.

10. Turkish officials wavered at the last minute. Only Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton’s crisis management prevented an embarrassing
fiasco.

The latest flap resulted from a finding by Armenia’s Constitutional
Court on Jan. 12. Clearing the way for ratification, the Court
affirmed that that the protocols conform to Article 11 of the Armenian
declaration of independence which states, "The Republic of Armenia
stands in support of the task of achieving international recognition
of the Armenian genocide in Ottoman Turkey and Western Armenia."

Turkish officials vehemently objected. They claimed that the Court’s
finding contained "preconditions and restrictive findings" that
undermine the "fundamental objectives" of the protocols. Citing
a sub-annex to the agreement calling for the establishment of a
commission for dialogue on historical issues, it is actually Turkey
that is trying to impose a pre-condition by insisting that the
commission consider whether the Armenian genocide actually occurred.

Both US and Russian diplomats insist that the deal was made without
preconditions.

This moment of opportunity must not be lost. The ball is in Turkey’s
court. Armenia’s President Serge Sarkisian announced yesterday that
he would formally submit the protocols to the Armenian parliament
for ratification despite Turkey’s efforts to stonewall and distort
the deal.

Pushing for ratification won’t be easy for Erdogan, who wants to avoid
controversy in the run-up to elections.Even if Erdogan decides to
use his political capital, it might not be enough. In the past year,
Erdogan’s approval rating has slipped from 47 percent to 32 percent.

There should be no connection between opening the border and US
recognition of the genocide, but as a practical matter there is. If the
US Congress adopts the Armenian Genocide Recognition Act, which comes
up every year on April 24, Turkey would feel justified to abandon
the protocols. Erdogan might even derive some short-term political
benefit. Righteous indignation would appeal to the nationalist streak
in Turkey’s electorate.

Turkey and Armenia are on the verge of missing an unprecedented
opportunity for rapprochement. This would be a blow to both countries.

For Turkey, adopting the protocols affirms its "no conflict with
neighbors" policy and boosts its flagging EU candidacy. Opening the
border for normal travel and trade would end Armenia’s isolation and
be a windfall on both sides of the border.

The Obama administration must do its utmost to avoid a diplomatic
debacle, which would also set back US interests. Not only would a
breakdown tarnish America’s prestige, but ensuing events could
potentially disrupt US-Turkish relations at a time when the
United States needs Turkey to help stabilize Iraq, support NATO in
Afghanistan, and back diplomatic efforts to reign in Iran’s nuclear
program.

David Phillips is director of the Program on Conflict Prevention and
Peacebuilding at American University and author of "Unsilencing the
Past: Track Two Diplomacy and Turkish-Armenian Reconciliation."