THE BALL’S IN TURKEY’S COURT: THE BOSTON GLOBE

Tert.am
11:20 ~U 12.02.10

The protocols on normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia
were heralded as an historic breakthrough when they were announced
last April, but the deal is now on the brink of collapse unless the
parliaments of Turkey and Armenia ratify the agreement, reports The
Boston Globe.

Since the Protocols, when they were introduced, didn’t connect the
fate of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia-Turkey relations, Turkey’s Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan suffered withering criticism from not
only Azerbaijan, but also Turkey’s large Azeri minority.

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev also threatened to boycott the
Nabucco pipeline, which is designed to carry natural gas from Central
Asia via Turkey to markets in Europe. Within a month, Erdogan was in
Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, assuring his "Azeri brothers’~R that
Turkey "could open its border only if Armenia lifts its occupation
of Nagorno-Karabakh.’~R

The latest flap resulted from a finding by Armenia’s Constitutional
Court on Jan. 12. Clearing the way for ratification, the Court
affirmed that that the protocols conform to Article 11 of the Armenian
declaration of independence which states, "The Republic of Armenia
stands in support of the task of achieving international recognition
of the Armenian Genocide in Ottoman Turkey and Western Armenia.’~R

Turkish officials vehemently objected. They claimed that the Court’s
finding contained "preconditions and restrictive findings’~R that
undermine the "fundamental objectives’~R of the protocols. Citing
a sub-annex to the agreement calling for the establishment of a
commission for dialogue on historical issues, it is actually Turkey
that is trying to impose a pre-condition by insisting that the
commission consider whether the Armenian genocide actually occurred.

Both US and Russian diplomats insist that the deal was made without
preconditions.

This moment of opportunity must not be lost. The ball is in Turkey’s
court. Armenia’s President Serzh Sargsyan announced yesterday that
he would formally submit the protocols to the Armenian parliament
for ratification despite Turkey’s efforts to stonewall and distort
the deal.

Pushing for ratification won’t be easy for Erdogan, who wants to avoid
controversy in the run-up to elections.Even if Erdogan decides to
use his political capital, it might not be enough. In the past year,
Erdogan’s approval rating has slipped from 47 percent to 32 percent.

There should be no connection between opening the border and US
recognition of the genocide, but as a practical matter there is. If the
US Congress adopts the Armenian Genocide Recognition Act, which comes
up every year on April 24, Turkey would feel justified to abandon
the protocols. Erdogan might even derive some short-term political
benefit. Righteous indignation would appeal to the nationalist streak
in Turkey’s electorate.

Turkey and Armenia are on the verge of missing an unprecedented
opportunity for rapprochement. This would be a blow to both countries.

For Turkey, adopting the protocols affirms its "no conflict with
neighbours’~R policy and boosts its flagging EU candidacy. Opening
the border for normal travel and trade would end Armenia’s isolation
and be a windfall on both sides of the border.

The Obama administration must do its utmost to avoid a diplomatic
debacle, which would also set back US interests. Not only would a
breakdown tarnish America’s prestige, but ensuing events could
potentially disrupt US-Turkish relations at a time when the
United States needs Turkey to help stabilize Iraq, support NATO in
Afghanistan, and back diplomatic efforts to reign in Iran’s nuclear
program.